Consultancy for a study on migrant smuggling trends and dynamics to and through Türkiye At Danish Refugee Council

Consultancy for a study on migrant smuggling trends and dynamics to and through Türkiye

Organisational Introduction

The Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) is a global network engaged in data collection, research, analysis, and policy and programmatic development on mixed migration, with regional hubs in Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Latin America, and a global team based across Copenhagen, Geneva and Brussels. MMC is a leading source for independent and high-quality data, research, analysis and expertise. MMC aims to increase understanding of mixed migration, to positively impact global and regional migration policies, to inform evidence-based mixed migration responses for people on the move and to stimulate forward thinking in public and policy debates on mixed migration. MMC’s overarching focus is on human rights and protection for all people on the move. The three overall objectives of the MMC are:

To contribute to a better, more nuanced and balanced understanding of mixed migration (knowledge)

• To contribute to evidence-based and better-informed migration policies and debates (policy)
• To contribute to effective evidence-based protection responses for people on the move (programming)

The MMC is part of, and governed by, DRC. MMC regional hubs are hosted within DRC regional offices, but part of the global MMC network. While its institutional link to DRC ensures MMC’s work is grounded in operational reality, it acts as an independent source of data, research, analysis and policy development on mixed migration for policymakers, practitioners, journalists, and the broader humanitarian sector. The position of the MMC does not necessarily reflect the position of DRC. For more information on MMC visit our website (https://mixedmigration.org/).

Since 2014, MMC has been implementing 4Mi (please see our website for details) as its flagship primary data collection system which is an innovative approach that helps fill knowledge gaps, and inform policy and response regarding the nature of mixed migratory movements and the protection risks for refugees and migrants on the move. 4Mi has a unique network of field enumerators situated along frequently used mixed migration routes and in major migratory hubs. It aims to offer a regular, standardized, quantitative system of collecting primary data on mixed migration. In Asia and the Pacific, 4Mi has been active and implemented in Türkiye, Afghanistan, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

Context

Türkiye has long been both a destination and a key transit hub for migrants seeking to reach Europe. Given its geographic location, Türkiye acts as a major conduit for mixed migration movements from regions such as the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, often facilitated through smuggling networks. At the same time, Türkiye’s role in regional migration management has become increasingly important, particularly under agreements with the European Union aimed at controlling irregular migration. Efforts to curb smuggling through increased border security and enforcement measures have reshaped migration routes, pushing smugglers and migrants alike to adapt to new, often more dangerous, pathways. These enforcement efforts have also created additional risks for those forced into irregular migration.

Understanding the migrant smuggling dynamics to and through Türkiye requires a comprehensive approach that considers not only the drivers of irregular migration but also the evolving smuggling networks and the associated risks faced by migrants. Since August 2021, the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) has been conducting interviews with migrants in Türkiye through its 4Mi enumerators. These interviews have provided valuable insights into the changing migration landscape, including the profiles of migrants, the routes they take, and the protection risks they encounter along the way. In January 2024, MMC has added its smuggling module to the 4Mi survey to understand the role of smugglers in migration decision making, smuggling routes and fees, modalities of payment, perception of smugglers, and their role in protection risks as perpetrators.

As smuggling routes continue to adapt in response to geopolitical shifts, enforcement practices, and migration policies, it is crucial to study the current trends and dynamics to ensure that responses are both effective and protection-oriented. The findings from this consultancy will provide an up-to-date analysis of these trends, drawing on the MMC’s 4Mi data, and will contribute to better-informed policies and protection mechanisms that address the needs of people on the move, while mitigating the risks associated with migrant smuggling. The study aims to provide actionable recommendations that enhance regional responses to smuggling, improve migrant protection, and reduce the vulnerabilities that push people into relying on smuggling networks.

Objectives of the Consultancy

The consultant will draft a comprehensive report on migrant smuggling trends and dynamics to and through Türkiye, utilising the 4Mi data already collected by MMC and complemented by secondary literature. The data already collected includes 1,400 survey interviews and 25 qualitative interviews with migrants who arrived irregularly in Türkiye during last two years.

The report will analyze key drivers of smuggling, including policy changes, geopolitical developments, and enforcement practices, with a focus on Türkiye as a transit and destination country. It will also assess the risks faced by migrants, particularly due to recent developments, and provide actionable recommendations to mitigate these risks and enhance protection mechanisms.

Key Research Questions

General mixed migration trends and dynamics

• How has migration to and through Türkiye changed over the last few years, and what are the expected future trends?
• Who is undertaking mixed migration journeys to and through Türkiye? What are their socio-demographic profiles?
• What are the key factors influencing the decision to migrate to or through Türkiye?
• What are the main routes, migration hubs, border-crossing points and modes of transportation into and through Türkiye?
• What risks do people on the move face during their journey? What mitigation strategies or coping mechanisms have they developed or recommended?
• What are migrants’ future intentions regarding their stay in Türkiye – do they plan to remain, return to their countries of origin, or migrate onwards to Europe? For what reasons? What reasons underpin these intentions, and how do migration policies, including EU Pact influence their decisions?

Specific migrant smuggling trends and dynamics

• How do migrant smuggling networks operate, including their roles, interactions, and organizational structures within the networks along the routes to Türkiye, and how have these evolved over the past years?
• How do migrants and smugglers establish contacts, negotiate terms, and agree on fees for smuggling services along the routes to Türkiye, and what implications do these arrangements have for the use of smugglers?
• What financing methods do migrants use to pay for smuggling services to Türkiye, and how do these financing mechanisms affect their vulnerability?
• What risks do irregular migrants face in the context of smuggling, and who are the perpetrators involved?
• How effective are current law enforcement efforts in Türkiye at countering migrant smuggling? How do these efforts affect the vulnerability of smuggled/irregular migrants?
• How might the implementation of the new EU Pact influence anti-smuggling operations, and what are the consequences could this have for smuggling routes and people on the move?

Dissemination of research findings

Final research findings will be disseminated through MMC’s and DRC’s networks in the form of a written report, as well as an online presentation. It is envisaged that intermediary dissemination sessions may also be conducted by the consultant in order to share and validate preliminary research findings.

Methodology and methods

The Consultant will be required to prepare a detailed work plan indicating how the objectives of the project will be achieved, and the support required from MMC.

This research will be based on the already-acquired 4Mi data collected through the MMC’s flagship primary data collection system, 4Mi (about 4Mi, see: https://mixedmigration.org/4mi/). In total, MMC has collected 1,400 surveys and conducted 25 qualitative interviews with migrants who arrived in Türkiye irregularly. It is expected that this research will draw from diverse and inclusive perspectives primarily from migrants and should be grounded in evidence from a review of relevant research, literature, and policy documents. The research will progress in line with the ethical research standards defined by MMC, ensuring informed consent, confidentiality, and best practice in refugee-specific research informant protection.

Alignment with MMC’s Strategic Focus

MMC Strategic Objectives / Outcome of Study

To contribute to a better, more nuanced and balanced understanding of mixed migration (knowledge)

• Increased understanding of mixed migration and migrants smuggling dynamics through Türkiye and the associated vulnerabilities migrants face along these smuggling routes.

To contribute to effective evidence-based protection responses for people on the move (programming)

• Findings, including recommendations, will be shared with relevant stakeholders

To contribute to evidence-based and better-informed migration policies and debates (policy)

• Findings, including recommendations, will provide insights into the smuggling dynamics through Türkiye, supporting advocacy efforts to enhance protection measures and improve regional migration responses.

Timeframes and deliverables

The consultancy will culminate in a research report concisely presenting findings in clear language, adhering to the MMC’s guidelines and publishable upon completion.

Phase 1: Inception stage

In inception stage, the consultant will develop an inception report, detailing the research methodology, a preliminary bibliography and data sources for desk review, and report structure. The consultant will conduct desk review and scoping exercises including initial consultations with key stakeholders. At this stage, MMC will share the 4Mi data from interviewed migrants in Türkiye (1,400 surveys and 25 qualitative interviews) along with initial analysis of the 4Mi data. The consultant will conduct analysis of the qualitative data.

Phase 2: Presentation of research plan

Following their thorough analysis of the 4Mi data and the interview data, the consultant will present their inception report, which includes their main findings and research plan to the MMC team. The consultant will then finalise the report structure for drafting, following consultation and feedback from MMC.

Phase 3: Report Writing

The consultant will draft the final report (no more than 30 pages). The first draft will be shared with MMC team for comments and inputs, with the final report (no more than 30 pages) and an executive summary (three pages maximum) to be delivered by the consultant within one week of receiving the feedback. The consultant is responsible for ensuring that the final report is fully copy-edited and complies with MMC’s editorial and style guidelines. The final report will carry the MMC’s logo, acknowledging the authorship of the consultant.

The research will be conducted between November and December 2024. The estimated duration of this assignment is 25 working days (negotiable depending on the breadth of the proposal). The tentative schedule of deliverables follows.

The Consultant will submit the deliverables outlined in the Annex A.1 Terms of Reference.

EXPECTED PROFILE/QUALIFICATIONS

• Consultant/s should have a degree in Law, Social Sciences, International Relations, Migration, Refugee Studies or any other related area of study;
• A strong and proven background (e.g. through prior publications) in migration and refugee governance in the regional context.
• Proven research skills, including in both quantitative and qualitative analysis;
• Strong stakeholder networks within the region with the ability to work consultatively with key stakeholders throughout the research process;
• Good understanding of legal and policy frameworks relating to migration and forced displacement (national, regional, and international);
• Good understanding of smuggling dynamics and migrant smuggling in the region;
• Excellent analytical and reporting skills. Proven track record of publications on (mixed) migration and forced displacement;
• Fluency in written and spoken English.

The Consultant is obliged to abide by DRC’s code of conduct (Annex D).

PROPOSAL EVALUATION & SUBMISSION

Please check RFP Invitation Letter.

PRIMARY CONTACT POINT

This is a home-based consultancy. The consultant’s main point of contact will be MMC Asia and the Pacific manager, Fiona Robertson (fiona.robertson@mixedmigration.org).