Consultancy-Impact Assessment of the UNDP Project entitled “Support the Development of Circular Economy for Sustainable Employment Opportunities ” At Oxfam GB

Terms of Reference/ToR/ for the Impact Assessment of the UNDP Project entitled “Support the Development of Circular Economy for Sustainable Employment Opportunities in Mosul”

Terms of Reference

Project title: Support the Development of Circular Economy for Sustainable Employment Opportunities in Mosul

Donor: UNDP

Geographical coverage: Ninewa governorate in Iraq

Project duration: June 12, 2022, to January 11, 2023

Project cost: total project cost: US$ 690,000

Estimated number of beneficiaries (F/M): Skills Development Training: 60; Job placement:: 60 Business management training; 40 ( 30 of them will receive grants)

Impact assessment Commissioning Manager: Program Manager in Ninewa, Oxfam in Iraq

Impact assessment Manager: Country MEAL Coordinator, Oxfam in Iraq

1. BACKGROUND:

Iraq is a quite diverse country with a population made up of various ethnic and religious groups having diverse gender norms within their communities. The total population is 39,309,783[1] out of which are 19,891,811 (50.6%) male and 19,417,972 (49.4%) female, and the average household is 7.7[2]. The situation in Iraq remains unstable with widespread humanitarian concerns. Years of conflict uprooted millions of people eroded social cohesion, disrupted access to basic services, destroyed livelihoods and led to increased protection risks. With weak central governance and limited progress towards recovery and development, the situation has become protracted and millions. The most vulnerable people in Iraq and those in acute need of humanitarian assistance are those directly affected by the 2014-2017 conflict against ISIL, particularly those who were displaced and whose lives and livelihoods were uprooted and destroyed[3].

There are approximately 1.2 million IDPs in Iraq, more than 70% of whom are located in Ninewa, Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Kirkuk governorates. The majority of IDPs live in private settings, while around 20% are in camps. As at December 2020, more than 4.8 million IDPs had returned to their areas of origin or other areas. The returnees mostly went to Ninewa, Anbar, Salah Al-Din, Kirkuk, and Diyala governorates. Many IDPs face relocations or forced returns because of camp closures, which are part of a government campaign, ongoing since 2019, to return IDPs home. As of January 2021, 16 IDP sites had been closed. Three formal camps in Anbar and Ninewa governorates and 25 camps in the KRI remain open. The prolonged nature of displacement leads to increased vulnerabilities among returnees and IDPs who face multiple needs, including health, food, livelihoods, and adequate shelter.

The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affair’s 2021 Multi-Cluster Needs Assessment indicates Ninewa has 948,000 people in need, the majority of which (42%) are concentrated in Mosul Governate[4]. Mosul was affected by a series of crises prior to COVID-19, including Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) occupation from 2014 to 2016 and the battle to retake Mosul from 2016 to 2017. The occupation and retaking of Mosul resulted in widespread destruction as factories and businesses were looted and destroyed. Indiscriminate airstrikes and approximately 30,000 ground troops from Iraqi and Kurdish forces contributed to the demolition of the city’s infrastructure, including major public bridges. Following liberation, economic opportunity was hindered by movement restrictions that obstructed national and international distribution channels, unreliable access to basic services, and the diversion of government funds from public goods towards security and counterterrorism efforts[5]. Today, among the most pressing self-reported need among returnees and host community members is access to employment and livelihoods[6]. Areas with high population density, such as Mosul, also remain underserved. Most women still lack equitable access to the market as business holders, with 95% of respondents in Oxfam’s 2021 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA) for Ninewa confirming men control all livelihood assets. The MSNA also confirmed that men possessed a wider and more lucrative range of employable skills than women. This points to the need to improve the human capital of Iraq’s young male and female work force and produce quality jobs that this cohort will demand.

The circular economy provides a unique opportunity to confront these needs. It can support Iraq to diversify its economy away from oil and create new value by reusing, repairing, refurbishing, and recycling existing goods. By providing opportunities design more sustainable products and keep resources in use for longer, it can help Mosul to ‘leapfrog’ to a more sustainable development pathway that avoids being locked into resource-intensive practices and infrastructure. For low-income consumers in Mosul, it will mean better products that last for longer, and are designed to be reused, repaired, and ultimately recycled. However, this transition towards circular economies requires a new type of support. It goes beyond business management training and includes technical support to MSME to re-think business models and resource management plans in order to increase their value extraction. It requires a whole system approach that draws public awareness to the environmental, social, and economic benefits to a circular economy to create new markets and pathways for job creation. Finally, it requires investments in job-relevant skills development programs, particularly for women and youth, to pursue those pathways. This proposed intervention plans to do exactly this.

Through UNDP funding, Oxfam is implementing the project “Support the Development of Circular Economy for Sustainable Employment Opportunities in Mosul.” The project aims to improve target populations’ employability and access to livelihood opportunities, while also creating new opportunities within the circular economy by increasing entrepreneurs’ capacity to grow their businesses, facilitating access to inputs to improve their sustainability, and assisting business scale-up to absorb new employees. Project delivery comprises an innovative, integrated, demand-led strategy and methodology to ensure that targeted individuals undergo a streamlined transition from training to employability and /or business development.

Despite the fact that the current project’s life span is short, Oxfam intends to conduct an impact assessment to determine the project’s impact/contribution to the lives of the targeted people by hiring an external consultant. As a result, this ToR describes the objectives, approach, and methodology that the consultant will use for the impact assessment, as well as the expected qualifications, work experience and deliverables from the consultant.

2. PROJECT INTERVENTION AND TARGET GROUPS:

The expected outcome of the project is long-term livelihood opportunities for returnees and host community members, with a focus on women and youth, in targeted circular economy sub-sector(s) in Mosul.

The project will improve the employability of target populations and their access to livelihood opportunities, while also creating new prospects within the circular economy by increasing the capacity of entrepreneurs to grow their businesses, facilitating access to inputs to improve their sustainability, and supporting business scale-up to absorb new employees. Project delivery comprises an innovative, integrated, demand-led strategy and methodology to ensure that targeted individuals undergo a streamlined transition from training to employability and/or business development.

The project has two outputs and Oxfam’s approach will bring together youth women, men, and market actors under outputs 1 and 2 to ensure that those skills, which are relevant to the circular economy, are emphasized, developed, and contribute towards circular economy market development.

Output 1: Skills development and employment opportunities through training and job placements in specified circular economies sub-sector(s)

Individuals enrolled in vocational training to learn key skills so they can access the labor market afterward. Trainings were delivered through private sector employers only, based on capacity and impact potential. A Circular Economy Market Assessment was conducted to identify in-demand sub-sectors and develop a roster of employers. Oxfam will link project participants to relevant employers through on-the-job training, post-graduation job placements, and/or informal engagement sessions. The most important activity will be the development of curricula for the targeted sub-sector(s), which will be developed according to real market needs and job opportunities. This will ensure that enrolled graduates develop relevant skills that can be applied in the labor market. Moreover, Oxfam will provide start-up kits for participants to excel in their new job placements or establish their own businesses.

Output 2: Expansion, re-start, or launch of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in targeted circular economy sub-sector(s)

Evidence from past Oxfam projects suggests that business grants are an effective way of supporting conflict-affected individuals to immediately restore their income-generating options. This approach also supports greater innovation within livelihood interventions, as businesses are more confident taking small risks. Business grants will be complemented with business management training to build individual capacities and business literacy. Grants will be provided to only those businesses which are confidently and objectively scored high as having growth potential. The empowerment through skills in knowledge transfer in the form of business management and technical training, specifically for women and youth, will create resilient livelihood opportunities in new, sustainable sub-sectors.

The project’s direct beneficiaries were long-term unemployed men, women, and youth in Ninewa. Specifically, jobless individuals from marginalized and unprivileged groups, youth, and women (including young women) were prioritized with a 50% ratio expected to be reserved for female participation. The project aimed to target 60 individuals (20 female and 40 youth) for skills development and employment through training (output 1), 40 individuals (30% of them will receive business grants) (output 2)

4. OBJECTIVES AND KEY IMPACT ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

The project will end on January 11, 2023, and an external impact assessment is planned to take place in January and February 2023.

The overall objective of the UNDP impact assessment is to demonstrate the effectiveness of the project in relation to its objectives/outcomes; to inform decisions about the continuation (or discontinuation), expansion, or replication of the project; and to assess the learnings from the project design and project implementation from engaging with communities and other stakeholders. The scope of the impact assessment is determined by using OECD-DAC criteria for evaluating project outcomes. Relevant criteria are associated with a number of key questions that are to be addressed and explored.

Specific Objectives of the Impact Assessment:

1. To assess the extent to which project activities were implemented and contributed to the achievement of project objectives/outcomes.
2. To identify and assess key internal and external factors that have contributed, affected, or impeded the achievements of the project, and how Oxfam and UNDP have managed these factors.
3. To assess the beneficiary targeting, verification, and selection processes/approaches of the project. And, examine the extent to which the impact of the project has reached the intended beneficiaries.
4. To draw key lessons and learning from the project and make recommendations that will help inform Oxfam’s formulation and design of future projects that will benefit the Iraqi displaced, host, and returnee communities affected by the armed conflict.
5. Assess the likelihood of continuation and sustainability of project outcomes and its benefits after completion of the project

Key Impact Assessment Questions

This impact assessment will respond to the following questions:

• To what extent can specific impacts be attributed to the project intervention?
• To what extent were the objectives of the project achieved? Has the project intervention made a difference?
• How has the project intervention made a difference? (How and why have the impacts come about? Has the intervention resulted in any unintended impacts? For whom has the intervention made a difference? Have women and men benefited equally from the project and what differences can be observed any why?
• What were the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of the project objectives?
• To what extent did the project reach its appropriate target population? To what extent did the male and female beneficiaries receive all appropriate services (vocational training, business grants, internship etc)?
• What impact has the UNDP project had on the livelihoods of target beneficiaries and their families?
• To what extent do the project interventions (vocational training, business grants, internship) contribute to human capital and skill development to create more employment/job opportunities for women and men?
• To what extent did the project align its interventions with national and regional development policies?
• To what extent did the project follow gender mainstreaming commitments and contributed to gender equality, including but not limited to, ending gender-based violence?
• Can this project intervention be expected to work elsewhere? (Can this pilot be transferred elsewhere and scaled up? Is the intervention sustainable? What generalizable lessons can be learned)
• To what extent youth contributed and benefited from the project?
• To what extent community participation has helped in designing and implementing the activities? (if there are community committees formed at the field level how much have they contributed to the process)
• To what extent government administration and departments were involved in designing and implementing the different project activities throughout the project cycle management

5. IMPACT ASSESSMENT CRITERIA AND KEY QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The project impact assessment/Impact assessment should be organized taking into consideration of OECD-DAC and Oxfam’s key Impact Assessment criteria, and program quality standards. The Impact Assessment will also consider key sector and sub-sector indicators for assessing performance. The following provides a guide to the questions to be addressed by this Impact Assessment, under each of the criteria below:

Relevance and Appropriateness:

• Has Oxfam selected relevant operational areas for their work?
• Has Oxfam targeted the most vulnerable people, including vulnerable men, women, boys, and girls? What definition of vulnerability has been applied?
• To what degree has the intervention addressed the livelihoods needs of the targeted women, men, boys, and girls and contributed to reduced vulnerability?
• Was the project design consistent with the Do No Harm principle and applied a Safe Programming approach?
• What was the level and quality of participation of the beneficiaries and the partners in project design? Were there any differences between women and men?
• How responsive were project activities to the needs of targeted women, men, boys, and girls in targeted communities (If possible, please distinguish between women and men in displaced/returnee and host communities) given their circumstances and priorities?
• To what extent have the key contextual changes, threats, and opportunities that arose during implementation been influencing and informing project implementation?
• How and to what extent were monitoring findings used to inform decision-making and the improvement of project implementation by Oxfam?
• Was the project adapted appropriately to changing contexts and needs in a timely manner? What changes took place in the implementation of the project that differed from the original design?

Efficiency:

1. Was the project implemented based on the best use of existing resources/capacity, e.g. the internal capacity and expertise of Oxfam itself? What key limitations existed on this front? What could Oxfam’s future projects do to increasingly develop and invest in existing resources?
2. How cost-effective was the intervention? What cost-effective alternatives could have been used?
3. Were the resources (financial, human, etc) for running all the activities available, adequate, and was this the best use of resources to achieve the results?

Effectiveness:

• Has the project proceeded well toward the achievement of its outcomes?
• Is there anything about this project that has had any impact on the beneficiaries (positive or negative)?
• What unintended consequences (if any), whether positive or negative, did the intervention have on women, men, boys and girls so far (IDPs/returnees/host communities)?
• What were the main challenges of the project and how well have they been addressed? Is there anything in this project that made these challenges more/less manageable?
• How were beneficiaries selected and were they informed of the selection criteria?
• How effective were the selection criteria in reaching out to the most vulnerable populations?
• How inclusive and culturally sensitive were the activities carried out in terms of the approach, quality of participation, information and its dissemination?
• What system and mechanism are in place to ensure accountability to the beneficiaries and how well have they been working throughout the project?
• Were there any risks inherent to the duration of the project, either in the course of or towards the end/after the end of the intervention?
• What factors have contributed to achieving or not achieving the intended outcomes and set objectives of the project? Identify any exceptional experiences/achievements of the project substantiated with evidences, such, but not limited to case studies, best practices, etc..

Impact:

• What positive and negative, intended and unintended, changes were produced by the project?
• Have these changes contributed to any identified changes according to the aspirations of the project to improve livelihoods?
• Are the local communities and stakeholders more resilient than before?
• How likely is it that any positive changes may be sustained in the short- and medium-term?

Sustainability:

• To which extent did the planning and implementation of the interventions take longer-term and integrated problems into account?
• How did the project consider adequately to the context and the nexus of humanitarian action, recovery, and development?
• Did the project adopt an exit strategy that ensures longer-term positive effects and reduces the risk of dependency?
• How likely will critical services and effects be sustained beyond the duration of the project?
• How well are the project’s outputs linked to long-term objectives?
• What was the capacity of key actors to contribute to sustaining the positive changes of the project?
• What were/are the major factors that influenced the achievement or non-achievement of sustainability of the project?
• To what extent did the benefits of the project continue after donor funding ceased? What were the major factors which influenced the achievement or non-achievement of sustainability of the project?

6. METHODOLOGY

Oxfam recommends mixed methods (a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods) that will improve the Impact Assessment findings by ensuring that the limitations of one type of data are balanced by the strength of another. Therefore, the data collection for this Impact Assessment will contain various tools and methods. Quantitative data using a structured questionnaire can be used to see how the project’s intervention brings change to the life of conflict-affected communities. The HH survey findings will be also integrated with the Impact Assessment findings according to the key evaluation criteria (relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability and impact).

Regarding the qualitative approach, the consultant is expected to develop a detailed methodology (to be endorsed by Oxfam) for this Impact Assessment based on the expected deliverables and OECD-DAC criteria. The consultant will use qualitative data collection methods, such as FGD with different groups (men, women),

(KII), with local government authorities, Oxfam staff, community leaders, partners and other stakeholders, case studies/story of changes, etc).

The consultant(s) will also do a desk study/ literature review, including Circular Economy Assessment, PDM surveys, project proposals, progress reports, monitoring reports, etc used to cross-examine primary data. The Impact Assessment methodology should make use of PDM and other data already generated by Oxfam’s MEAL and program team.

It is required that consultant(s)/firms be experienced in using participatory approaches in data collection and using the analysis for learning; especially seeking the views and perceptions of a broad range of stakeholders that include:

• Targeted beneficiaries
• Stakeholders or actors directly involved in the project at different levels:
• Community leaders (if applicable) and representative bodies of the affected population.
• Local authorities.
• Oxfam staff involved the implementation of the project (e.g. PMs, Technical Coordinators, field MEAL and program team.)

The consultant should prepare data collection tools and appropriate sampling methodology, which should then be shared with the Oxfam MEAL and program team for comments and approval.

• The consultants should consider the following aspects before submitting their bid for this consultancy:
• The evaluator’s understanding of the key evaluation questions and technical competencies.
• Description of the phases related to the Impact Assessment approach proposed.
• Sources of information for primary and secondary data collection.
• Sampling strategies, including area and population group represented in the sample, sampling procedures, and sample size.
• Instruments to be used for data collection.
• Different types of data analysis will be carried out.
• Reference indicators and benchmarks for each Impact Assessment question

7. REQUIRED EXPERTISE FOR THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONSULTANT(S):

This final Impact assessment should be led by a person (or persons) or firm have following:

Mandatory qualification:

• A minimum of 10 years of experience in humanitarian and development interventions in conducting Impact Assessments for international humanitarian organisations and donor agencies.
• Demonstrated experience in monitoring and impact assessment of food security and livelihoods, and the experience in assessing gender mainstreaming in emergency and recovery livelihoods interventions.
• Experience in the use of quantitative and participatory qualitative methods of data collection.
• Experience in data analysis
• Strong facilitation and communication skills.
• Proficiency in English and writing skills.
• Knowledge of ICT tools for mobile data collection (e.g. SurveyCTO)
• Commitment to safeguarding policies.
• Knowledge of the context (Iraq and or the Middle East); familiarity or direct working experience in Iraq or in other countries of the Middle East.

Desirable:

• Working knowledge or fluency in Arabic by the consultant or the skill mix of the team.
• Familiarity with Oxfam’s mission in Iraq.

8- TIMEFRAME, KEY ACTIVITIES AND EXPECTED LEVEL OF EFFORT

Timeframe: The Impact assessment is to be carried out in January and February 2023, with the final report submitted to Oxfam as per the timeline below. The exact dates of the Impact Assessment are to be confirmed with the selected consultant(s) or firm.

Total expected level of effort: 25 working days

Note: Following are the suggested number of days. Actual days will be agreed with the selected consultant(s)/firm as per work plan to be delivered during the time frame.

• Review essential documents of the project, including but not limited to the original project proposal, interim or ongoing internal reports, and Impact assessments and lessons learned exercises undertaken thus far and review the key questions suggested and if necessary, propose adjustment (3 to 4 days) – work to be done from consultant’s/firm’s home location, all documents will be shared by Oxfam via email);
• Develop and submit the draft inception report with a detailed Impact Assessment plan (to be endorsed by Oxfam) (2 to 3 day);
• Developing and translation of Impact assessment tools (Tools must be developed in English and translated in Arabic to administer in the field. (2 to 3 days)
• Primary data collection (quantitative and qualitative) (8 to 10 days in Iraq- Ninewa Governorate, Mosul district).
• Data analysis and preparation of draft Impact assessment report (7 to 10 days);
• Meeting (online) to share and validate the findings from the Impact Assessment (1 day). Selected Oxfam and UNDP staff will participate in this meeting.
• Finalize the final Impact assessment report and send it to Oxfam (2 to 3 days). Oxfam will then prepare a management response to be annexed to the Impact assessment report.

Working closely:

The consultant(s) /firm will report directly to the Country MEAL Coordinator and will work closely with the Programme Manager and the project manager in Ninewa. The Country MEAL Coordinator will coordinate and facilitate the Impact Assessment process with the selected firm/consultant(s) in collaboration with the Program Manager in Ninewa, Livelihood and Resilience Coordinator, field MEAL and program team.

9. EXPECTED OUTPUTS:

• Develop a detailed Impact assessment plan (to be submitted after the document review but before the data collection – to be endorsed by Oxfam), outlining the proposed methodology.
• Draft Impact assessment report in English to be presented to Oxfam (no more than 40 pages excluding annexes, including executive summary not exceeding 3 pages);
• Meeting to present the draft findings of the Impact assessment, and to give feedback to Oxfam staff and the partners.
• A draft copy of the Impact assessment report within one week (7 days) of the meeting with Oxfam staff. Feedback from Oxfam will be provided within one (1) week after the submission of the draft report. The consultant/firm will review, then submit a second draft, which will also be subject to Oxfam’s feedback within 2 days. The final report will be produced within 3 working days of the submission of the comments. It will include changes/modifications, agreed upon between Oxfam in Iraq and the consultant/firm. Some minimum guidelines on the impact assessment report:
• The report should systematically answer the key questions posed.
• It should fairly and clearly represent the views of the different actors/stakeholders.
• It should give the conclusions of the evaluator, in a way that is clear and substantiated by the available evidence.
• Please note that the consultant should submit the final Impact assessment report with Oxfam on 15th February 2023.

10. Payment and instructions for interested consultants/firms

Overall expression of interest/EOIs/ will be evaluated based on technical and financial proposals demonstrating value of money and strong technical description.

Payment will be done in two instalments, 30% upon contract signature, 70% upon Oxfam’s approval of the final Impact assessment report.

What costs to include in the offer: Consultants/firms should include the following costs in their offer’s budget: daily rate, cost of international travel (home location of consultant/firm to Erbil and back, applies to international consultants only). Other costs will be included in the offer, such as travel costs within Iraq for data collection and meetings, interpretation services during meetings with beneficiaries/partners, and printing/photocopying costs.

Note that payment will be made based on the budget in the offer (not based on actual expenses incurred by the consultant). No receipts will be requested from the consultant towards the end of the Impact assessment.

11. CODES OF CONDUCT:

The Impact Assessment process will be directed by Oxfam’s guidelines for the ethical conduct of Impact assessments and research, guiding the Impact assessment team through careful consideration of the key ethical implications at every stage of the Impact assessment. These guidelines are available at this link: http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/undertaking-research-with-ethics-253032

Selected consultant or firm will be asked to sign and adhere with Oxfam’s Code of Conduct.

12. SHARING AND USING FINDINGS:

The Oxfam International’s Policy on Program evaluation requires Confederation members to act on the commitment to transparency by making public the Executive Summary and a Management Response to all final evaluations/Impact assessments. The Oxfam Policy on program evaluation is available at this link:

https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fs-public/file_attachments/story/oxfam-program-evaluation-policy-dec10.pdf

13. DISCLOSURE:

Although free to discuss with the authorities on anything relevant to the assignment, under the terms of reference, the consultant is not authorized to make any commitments on behalf of Oxfam. All data collected as part of this consultancy belongs to Oxfam and public dissemination of the data and Impact assessment products can only be done with the written consent of Oxfam.

14. Bid Evaluation Criteria

Bid Impact Assessment Criteria

Part (A); Criteria Award criteria’s: Consultant’s Qualifications and experience in the field covered by the TOR : 1-Academic Qualifications; Score: 5%

2- Specialization and proven experience in the field related to the assignment; Score: 15%

3- Qualifications, skills, and experience of the Team to be engaged for the assignment; Score: 10%

Part (B); Criteria Award criteria’s: Quality / Understanding of the TOR : Meeting technical requirements (quality of the proposal) OR Level of understanding of the assignment as per TOR.It considers how deep the consultant understood the work including the scope**. (Not just copy and paste from the TOR content)**; Score: 10%

Part(C); Criteria Award criteria’s: Financial Proposal: 1- Clarity of the cost breakdown; Score: 25%

2- Fair and reasonable budget; Score: 15%

15. EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST (EOI):

Interested Individuals, organizations or research/consultancy firms, with the experience and skills described in the ToR should submit Expression of Interest/EOI/. The EOI must include

A cover letter of no more than 2 pages introducing the evaluator/organization and how the skills and competencies described above are met, with concrete examples. Please also use this cover letter to indicate the consultants’ availability for the proposed period. Note: the Impact assessment should start as early as possible on January 2023 to conclude on February 2023

Technical Proposal: The technical proposal should include an interpretation of the objectives of the consultancy, a detailed methodology and an elaborate work plan. Organization/individual capacity statement, past experience and activities related to Impact assessment, CVs of the consulting team and their roles in the achievement of the assignment; names, addresses and telephone numbers of three professional referees.

Financial Proposal: A one-page budget of the offer, covering all major anticipated costs; (proposed budget should not be included in the technical proposal).

Two to three samples of Impact assessment reports for Impact assessments conducted on livelihoods and other sectors