Consultancy to carry out Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (PVCA) for the Establishing launching pads for adaptation in Kenya At The Nature Conservancy

Background
Rangelands in Kenya constitute approximately 83% of the Kenya’s land mass, supporting over 70% of the country’s livestock and 85% of the wildlife populations (Ministry of Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries, 2021) Communities in the rangelands largely derive their livelihoods from natural resources. The rich plant diversity in the rangelands is a source of various economic products including, fuelwood, timber, medicine, honey, dye, resins, gum, fruits and vegetables. In the recent decades, productivity in these rangelands have diminished attributed mainly to climate change and variability especially frequent droughts and floods, land degradation and biodiversity loss. These have threated the sustainability of the rangeland’s resources, thereby creating economic and environmental challenges for the local communities especially pastoralists. Additionally, resource-related conflicts are a common occurrence especially around access to land, water and livestock grazing areas and between communities and wildlife escalating the humanwildlife conflicts in and around protected areas.
In recognition to these threats and risks faced by communities in the rangeland ecosystems in Kenya, the Nature Conservancy has initiated a project that aims assess climate risks to vulnerable communities and develop nature-based adaptation solutions that reduces risks and enhances resilience to climate change impacts. Through this work, TNC and its partners will: a) conduct joint climate risk assessments using downscaled climate models; b) conduct participatory socioeconomic vulnerability analyses to understand and address spatial variability in vulnerable communities; c) validate the results in communities to understand how they perceive climate risks and what climate change adaptation measures they might already be taking; and d) estimate the costs of priority adaptation measures, clarifying the implications for poor and marginalized communities. The results of this work will be applied to the development of a Sub-Sahara Africa Climate Strategy to integrate climate and vulnerability information into adaptation planning in other TNC projects across Africa.
To do this, TNC is seeking to engage a consultant to conduct the PVCA (aim b above) in selected conservancy landscapes in Kenya. The specific objectives and tasks to be performed under this consultancy are articulated below under the Objectives and Activities section of this TOR. In summary, the consultant will be expected to 1) analyse vulnerability to climate change and disasters at the community level, and the potential capacity within the community for dealing with
climate change and disasters. 2) combine community knowledge and scientific data to gain understanding about local risks and 3) prepare a succinct report inclusive of a portfolio of solutions that will directly inform local level action plans to reduce the risks from disasters and climate change impacts using nature. This information will be used to enhance the impact of TNCs work across the Northern and Southern rangelands in Kenya by providing guidance and frameworks for incorporating climate adaptation strategies into TNCs current work streams.
Purpose of contract
Carry out a Participatory Vulnerability Assessment and Socio-economic Survey within the settlement areas of
Nakuprat Gotu, Kalama, Melako, and Ngare Ndare conservancies in Northern Kenya rangelands, and Lumo, and
Maungo conservancies in Taita Taveta landscapes. Existing information on vulnerability at the level of Counties, Sub Counties and Wards will be used as a basis, carrying out a local analysis process informed by the contributions of key local actors (communities, various sectors, local government) that allows the verification/identification of specific vulnerabilities in the identified areas above and as per reference maps below.

Objectives and Scope of Work
The contractor is required to work closely with TNC experts to develop all work identified below based on the review of data and results of ongoing work carried out by TNC on climate risks and vulnerabilities. They will also work directly with relevant stakeholders and partners, with technical guidance from the TNC’s Climate Adaptation Specialists to achieve the objectives outlined in the section below. This assessment shall be confined to settlement areas within the targeted conservancies as well as adjacent landscapes covering communities on the fringes of the conservancies
Objectives:
1. Undertake local level Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (Task 1)
A. Compilation of specific information on climate risk and vulnerability of the villages and conservancies of Kalama – Samburu, Nakuprat Gotu – Isiolo, Ngare Ndare – Laikipia, Melako – Marsabit, Lumo and Maungu in Taita Taveta (threats, vulnerability and social indicators); using TNC generated modeling and locally gathered data, more concretely:
• Identify the degree of human exposure to major climate risks, specifically drought and flooding
• Determine the climate sensitivity of populations and subgroups exposed to the impacts of these hazards,
• Analyse the capacities of the population or subgroups to cope with the risks of climate change and recover (adaptive capacity).
• Consolidate any prior information on climate change impact metrics based on material/human/natural measures.
B. Under the PVCA at the local level, paying special attention to indicators of climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity, related to social vulnerability, that is, the structural factors that make communities susceptible to damage from external threats.
For this activity, the consultants must:
• Review literature on climate vulnerability indicators and indices appropriate for the selected conservancies and communities.
• Review the national climate risk and vulnerability maps shared by TNC as well as those developed by the national government and identify the indicators used in these indices.
• Based on the vulnerability indicators and indices developed for the Kenya and via the CRV project, propose a list of primary data indicators and contextual information suitable for assessing climate change (on-the-ground validation) and Identify local vulnerabilities and the specific stakeholders to which they apply.
• Undertake the assessment:
o Collecting primary and secondary data o Generating contextual information o Conducting analysis o Risk prioritisation o Formulating action o Action plan for moving towards implementation
Note: The successful organization/individual will be required to work closely with TNC and its partners in the Northern and Southern rangelands, including government, NGOs, and private sector partners. The work required will involve long periods in the field in very remote settings. The successful organization/individual will need to be fully sufficient with the ability to operate independently in the field for the entire duration of the assignment.
2. Undertake Socio-economic Assessment in the listed villages and conservancies. This will include at minimum four conservancies drawn from the four eco regions and levels of conservancies. Each village within the conservancies will be identified in collaboration with TNC and the local partners. (Task 2)
• Collect primary and secondary baseline data on factors that will most likely affect well-being of local communities, including livelihood characteristics, population growth, planned economic activities, urban development plans, disaster risk, and land-use change. For land use change assessments, contractor must work with information from the Forestry and other relevant government entities and Departments to ensure alignment with national efforts.
3. Collect secondary information on the health of ecosystems in the selected area, based on existing assessments, reports and interviews with key informants (Task 3).
• Using the available literature, collect information on the current state of health of the ecosystems and natural habitats identified in the selected landscape. Key ecosystems will be identified and prioritized based on recurring vulnerabilities and threat analysis of the selected region.
• Undertake field survey to collect data that can be used to identify and analyze the current general health and management conditions, the institutions/agencies responsible for management, and the climate stressors and their likely impacts on people through various ecosystem changes.
Final product: The consultant will prepare a report on the:
 socio-economic status of the listed villages and conservancies inclusive of a focus on livelihood approaches, in the study area and present a summary of this information in a slide presentation
 climate risks and vulnerabilities that includes the assessment of local vulnerabilities to climate change based on the data collected and a comprehensive action plan, and present the summary of the findings in a slide presentation.
 health of natural ecosystems in the study area and present a summary of this information in a slide presentation.
 co-created action plans which should integrate disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) and illustrate how these can be incorporated into an existing program. They should inform the design of a new program and the creation of a portfolio of solutions (task 4) that will integrate DRR and CCA measures. As well as include a monitoring and evaluation schedule that covers how to monitor/evaluate the impact of actions taken to reduce risk and enable CCA, and assist in the identification of new or adaptive measures. The guide should also include advocacy strategies for DRR and adaptation.
4. Evaluate ongoing and planned adaptation responses by different agents (Task 4)
Based on the literature review, focus group and key informant interviews and discussions with TNC teams (see point 1), the consultant will identify a series of feasible adaptation options (current/planned/potential) by the different interested actors. This analysis will include nature-based and associated adaptation options, as well as cost estimates, where data is available.
For this task, consultants should:
• Review government reports, peer-reviewed literature and other published literature on existing strategies/interventions associated with reducing particular vulnerabilities that are related to climate change in the country and at the project intervention sites. The review will highlight (but not be limited to) nature-based adaptation approaches, ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation (EbA) and investments in disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR).
• In coordination with TNC, develop questionnaires i.e. adaptive response modules for collecting data from focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews. This data collection will include questions about the costs associated with adaptation from key stakeholders [this primary data collection will be conducted in conjunction with data collection for activities 1 and 4].
• Summarize the ongoing (if and where any) and planned adaptation responses of the various stakeholders and summarize the costs of implementing these responses.
• Facilitate a workshop with stakeholders to prioritize adaptation responses. The goal is to share information on identified adaptation responses (compiled from input from local stakeholders, technical assessment, and literature review) and collaboratively evaluate and prioritize available options. The consultant will prepare a report that summarizes the conclusions of this workshop.
• Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report identifying a viable set of adaptation options (portfolio of solutions) and a summary of this information in a slide presentation.
Note: The data collection processes in Activities 1, 2 and 3 will involve mixed methods of data collection, including secondary sources and primary sources; and within primary sources, semi-structured interviews and focus groups of a single type or several types of actors can be combined. TNC will provide access to local and regional geospatial datasets relevant to the project and region of interest. This may include hydrological, terrestrial, marine, socio-economic data, etc. (compiled from previous projects in the area).
5. Assist TNC with a workshop designed to share the results of this study with local experts and key community groups for review and feedback. (TNC will host and facilitate the workshop, contractor will be expected to present the results of the Participatory and Vulnerability and Socio-Economic Assessment, and overall analysis of combined data and recommendations.) (Task 4)
Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report compiling all of the above products as well as a summary of this information in a slide presentation.
To support the above listed objectives the contractor will undertake the below activities:
Specifically, the Contractor must perform the following activities for each of the project sites:
i. Develop and submit and inception report with a detailed methodology and work plan outlining the activities to be performed and proposed timeline. This work plan will be used to coordinate activities in the field, as well as activities and consultations with other experts and the implementing partner – TNC, including workshops with the communities. ii. Conduct field trips, hold expert interviews and focus group discussions to gather and update (if applicable) the necessary information on habitats.
iii. Identify, locate, and map the major threats, vulnerabilities and pressures to the ecosystem and biodiversity by anthropogenic and natural phenomena (including climate change) within the three identified communities. The causes, sources, effects and impacts as well as the actors related (if applicable). iv. Conduct a participatory vulnerability assessment and socio-economic survey (including a high level gender analysis) to identify factors across the four areas of vulnerability: Social, economic, physical and environmental, factors that will most likely affect well-being of local communities, including population growth, planned economic activities, livelihood activities, urban development plans, disaster risk and land-use change.
v. Provide an analysis of climate trajectories at the conservancy level and associated impacts on the villages and communities located within the Northern and Southern Kenyan Rangelands
vi. Conduct an inventory of the socio-economic and natural resource data
vii. Undertake analysis to determine the best, middle and worst case scenarios related to climate-related risks and resource availability under conditions of climate change,
viii. Develop recommendations for the protection, restoration, and conservation actions to increase the ecosystem services provided by the studied habitats, to abate threats, especially as they relate to climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and livelihood provision.
ix. Propose at least five Nature based Solutions (NbS), and or Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) actions for the relevant villages and conservancies. We know that to reduce climate impacts, some solutions are socioeconomic, some hard infrastructure, some at the governance level and as such we encourage you to include other recommendations beyond NbS and EbA.
x. Produce a draft, final and summary technical report of the assessments incorporating listed items above.
xi. Assist TNC in the design of a workshop and present the results of the combined report to local experts and key community groups for review and feedback. (TNC will host and facilitate the workshop.)
Deliverables and timelines:
Deliverable

Qualification or specialized knowledge Academic Background:
The successful team should have personnel with functional experience in climate change adaptation, strong technical skills in development project design, cost /benefit analyses for nature-based solutions and monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The team should be comprised of the following technical experts with minimum postgraduate degree (MSc) in the below listed areas or a strong background:
• Vulnerability Assessment Specialist
• Climate Specialist/Disaster Risk Management Specialist and or
• Social Scientist with Natural Resources Management background and
• GIS Specialist
• Landscape Ecology/ Natural Resources Specialist  Optional but beneficial skillsets:
o Community Engagement Specialist/ Social Worker
General Experience:
• At least 8 years of experience working in natural resources management, environmental protection in an area relevant to Climate Change, climate change adaptation, coastal ecology, biodiversity management /conservation preferably in the Caribbean
Specific Experience:
• At least 10 years of technical experience in project development, conducting feasibility assessments, options analysis and /or project design, monitoring and evaluation;
• Experience in Vulnerability and Socio-economic Assessment
• Experience in Ecological engineering;
• Substantial relevant experience in the design and implementation of integrated development projects which take into account gender, social, and environmental safeguards standards;
• Work experience in Africa region on development, natural capital, environment, and/or climate change initiatives; Strong analytical and research skills;
• Experience in vulnerability and adaptation or sustainable development issues;
• Exceptional technical writing skills (in English) and ability to seek and incorporate feedback from multiple stakeholders;
• Flexibility and ability to operate in different cultural settings and with a variety of stakeholders; culturally and gender sensitive.
• Familiarity with technical issues related to climate mitigation and adaptation and additionally, methods of cost-benefit analysis for adaptation options
• Experience in demonstrable knowledge of key vulnerability assessment methodologies, empirical data-based analysis, scenario-based risk/hazards projections;
• Demonstrated experience in the use of spatial analysis tools including GIS
Other:
• Experience working with IPLC’s and NGO’s is highly desirable;
• Experience with participatory consultations and planning processes
Required Languages:
Excellent ability to write and understand English is required;