Enhancing Social Protection in Jordan and the Arab Region: Quantitative modelling, financing, and statistical analysis support At International Labour Organization

1. Background

The consultant will play a pivotal role in supporting initiatives aimed at advancing statistical analysis and quantitative modelling for social protection and employment reforms in Jordan and the Arab region. Collaborating closely with the International Labour Organization (ILO) and other key stakeholders, the consultant’s work encompasses a range of activities focused on enhancing policy development, statistical analysis, and capacity building within the Jordanian government and support sharing of good practices with other partners in the Arab region.

In Jordan, the consultant will support the International Labour Organization (ILO) in advancing policy development and evidence-based decision-making processes, particularly within the context of the initiative titled “Towards an inclusive national social protection system and accelerating decent job opportunities for Syrians and vulnerable Jordanians.” This collaborative effort, funded by the EU MADAD programme and conducted in partnership with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), aligns strategically with Jordan’s National Social Protection Strategy (2019-2025).

At the heart of this initiative is the aim to enhance coordination and monitoring across government agencies in the social protection and employment sector, strengthen national systems for better access to decent work and employment-based social protection, and facilitate the transition of vulnerable populations from cash assistance to sustainable employment. In this capacity, the consultant will play a pivotal role, providing technical assistance, conducting research and analysis, and fostering coordination among stakeholders.

Specifically, the consultant will collaborate closely with government agencies such as the Department of Statistics, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social Development, and others to enhance the production and dissemination of statistical bulletins/publications for Jordan’s social protection system. This collaborative effort is designed to improve data quality, address gaps in data collection, and strengthen institutional capacities for data analysis and interpretation.

Additionally, the consultant will support the ILO in enhancing the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation’s (MoPIC) capacity to evaluate the impact of fiscal policies on labour market dynamics and welfare. This support will involve bolstering MoPIC’s capabilities in analysing the effects of fiscal policies, including social protection, taxes, and subsidies, on various socio-economic indicators. Leveraging advanced modelling techniques, the consultant will assist MoPIC in conducting policy simulations and assessing the potential impacts of different policy interventions on key outcomes such as employment, poverty, and inequality.

The tools, approaches and techniques will be adopted to support similar capacity development efforts other related to social protection analytical capacity and modelling in other countries of the Arab region. For example, a request to support capacity development for the establishment of a social protection research centre has been recently by the newly established Social Protection Centre in Oman.

2. Objective and Scope of the assignment

The overall objective of the assignment is to:

1. Collaborate with the ILO, Department of Statistics, MoPIC, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social Development, National Aid Fund, Social Security Corporation, and the Statistical-working group on Social Protection to enhance the production and dissemination of the 2nd statistical bulletin/publication for Jordan’s social protection system. This entails delineating the bulletin’s scope, content, and periodicity, as well as mapping information sources. Oversee the preparation and dissemination process, identifying areas for improving data quality, addressing gaps in data collection, and implementing steps for data harmonization. Provide technical assistance on social protection statistics to participating agencies, while working with the Statistical working group to institutionalize data sharing mechanisms and draft frameworks for regular meetings to discuss data collection, reporting needs, and challenges.
2. Assist the ILO in enhancing MoPIC’s capacity to evaluate the impact of fiscal policies, including social protection, taxes, and subsidies, on labour market dynamics and welfare. This support will entail bolstering MoPIC’s capabilities in analysing the effects of the Tax-Benefit system on labour market outcomes and well-being, as well as conducting policy simulations using both static and dynamic microsimulation modelling techniques.
3. Providing support to social security/social protection institutions on capacity development for quantitative social protection analyses, welfare and financing analyses, modelling costings and simulation in other countries in the Arab region, and in particular support the development of a concept for the creation a social protection research centre within the newly established Social Protection Fund in Oman.

3. Specific activities

a) Support DoS in Jordan with developing the 2nd statistical bulletin for the years 2022-2023

Supporting the Department of Statistics (DoS) in the development of the 2nd statistical bulletin for the years 2022-2023 involves a multifaceted approach aimed at enhancing the understanding and effectiveness of Jordan’s Social Protection sector. Policymakers within this sector play a pivotal role in monitoring the comprehensive coverage, adequacy, and impact of the nation’s social protection system. However, there exists a need for robust tools to aid in this endeavour. These tools should enable policymakers to comprehend the extent of resources allocated to social protection within the country, assess the breadth, depth, and adequacy gaps across the entire system, and gauge the holistic impact of the social protection framework on poverty alleviation, inequality mitigation, and vulnerability reduction.

Following the successful launch of the inaugural statistical bulletin for the Social Protection sector in December 2023, the Government of Jordan (GoJ) is committed to releasing subsequent editions on an annual basis. These bulletins serve as instrumental tools to aid decision-makers within Jordan’s Social Protection sector in comprehensively evaluating the system, providing insights into its coverage, adequacy, and expenditure trends over time. Leveraging concrete and comprehensive data, the objective is to enhance the system’s coverage, efficiency, and program effectiveness for the benefit of the residents of Jordan. Additionally, there is a concerted effort to align with international statistical frameworks for social protection measurement and classification, such as those established by the IMF, OECD, and ILO. Furthermore, attention will be directed towards collecting data on previously identified indicators that adhere to ILO Social Security standards and the social protection floor framework, thereby addressing gaps identified during consultations and discussions with the Department of Statistics (DoS) and the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MoPIC).

To achieve these objectives, collaborative efforts with the DoS and the technical working group are crucial. This involves developing an inception report outlining a detailed action plan and timeline, conducting joint consultations to establish a unified definition of social protection and agree upon data and indicators, and reviewing and updating protocols for data sharing, validation, and analysis. Moreover, training activities, experience exchanges, and on-site technical assistance will be provided to participating institutions, ensuring capacity building and knowledge sharing. Face-to-face meetings, virtual sessions, and communication platforms will facilitate effective collaboration and coordination. Additionally, workshops and meetings with stakeholders, including the Statistical Working Group (SWG), will be held to gather feedback and ensure stakeholder engagement throughout the process. The involvement of an international consultant will provide quality assurance, guidance, and finalization of deliverables, while the local consultant will document discussions, ensure data delivery, and prepare initial drafts of reports in collaboration with the SWG. This comprehensive approach aims to strengthen institutional governance, enhance data quality and analysis, and ultimately contribute to the continuous improvement and effectiveness of Jordan’s Social Protection sector.

b) Support MoPIC in Jordan with developing capacities to assess the impacts of fiscal policies such as social protection, taxes, and subsidies on labour market and welfare dynamics.

Assessing and projecting the impact of employment and social protection policies is critical for Jordan to tackle the key agendas of employment creation, formalization and reduction of poverty and inequality, as reflected in the Economic Modernization Vision and the National Social Protection policies.

During 2023, building on the positive experience of collaboration on the preparation of the Jordan National Social Protection Statistical Bulletin, the International Labour Organization and MoPIC held several discussions to discuss areas of collaboration and possible support to MoPIC in the areas of labour and socio-economic analysis. A key area of interest and need is to strengthen national capacities in developing and applying analytical tools for planning, design and evaluation of integrated social protection and employment policies These will include labour supply modeling, tax-benefit modeling, and static microsimulation for ex ante Social Protection policy impact analysis. Activities will be implemented with an explicit objective of achieving the transfer of knowledge and skills development necessary for the MOPIC analysts to undertake independent analysis of the data.

It is proposed that the program follow a stages approach, of which the first two phases are part of these TORs, described below.

Phase 1 – Scoping: The scoping phase entails the following:

• Mapping the various sources of data available to MOPIC that are necessary for policy impact analysis.
• Determining existing capacities and capacity gaps among the dedicated group of analysts within MOPIC and other relevant partners as well as any hardware and software requirements.
• Establishing links with national and international academic institutions necessary to provide technical backstopping where necessary.
• Detailing detailed roadmap and plan for the development of the model and the different phases of the work

Phase 2 – Model Design and Construction:

• Determine analytical requirements and the necessary simulation model parameters in consultation with MOPIC and relevant partners.
• Undertake analytical and modelling activities aiming to address specific research questions pertaining to the Jordanian tax-benefit system and labour market.
• Transfer of knowledge and skills development necessary for the MOPIC analysts to undertake independent analysis of the data on tax-benefit modeling, and static microsimulation for ex ante Social Protection policy impact analysis.

Subsequent phases:

• Subject to data availability, design and construct a dynamic microsimulation tool to assess and forecast the costs and impacts of fiscal instruments including social protection, taxes, and subsidies as well as labour market policies. This will rely on the skills and analytical results achieved in phase 2 as well as on economic, labour market, and demographic projections from various sources.
• Undertake a series of forecasts examining the welfare and distributional effects of various possible reforms to the Jordanian tax-benefit system.

c) Quantitative analytical support on welfare and financing analyses in the Arab region, including support to establishment of a Social Protection analysis and research centre in Oman.

The consultant will engage in analytical activities aimed at supporting welfare and financing analyses, modelling costings and simulation, and capacity development on quantitative social protection analyses for country specific or regional activities on an ad hoc basis. This involves delving into detailed analyses of welfare indicators and trends within the target region or country, employing statistical methods and modelling techniques to assess the effectiveness of existing social protection programs in addressing welfare needs and reducing poverty, evaluating the financial sustainability of social protection systems, estimating the costs associated with implementing specific social protection programs and conducting sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of cost estimates under different economic, labour market and demographic conditions.

Within this component it is expected the consultant will support development of a concept for a social protection research centre within the Social Protection Fund in Oman. The consultant will support identification of key areas of focus for the centre, and required analytical modelling capabilities to assess welfare dynamics and needs, evaluate, and simulate implications of various policy scenarios and reforms, explore alternative policy options and their potential impacts on program outcomes, enable policymakers to make well-informed decisions about resource allocation and program design.

The consultant will identify required profiles and skillsets and capacity-building needs for the staff members of the centre, quantitative analytical techniques, and methodologies relevant to the centre and potential partnerships with other institutions at country, regional and global level who can offer technical assistance and support to enhance the analytical skills, promoting peer learning and exchange of best practices in quantitative social protection analysis. Additionally, it will support identification and assessment of relevant data sources and data infrastructure on which the work of the centre can be anchored. The scope of work for the support to the establishment of the centre will be refined in dialogue with SPF during the first month of the consultancy and the terms of the assignment may be amended accordingly.

4. Institutional Governance

The Department of Statistics will ensure the production of the 2nd Statistical Bulletin through the established Statistical-working group on Social Protection bringing together the institutions responsible for social protection systems (contributory and non-contributory), new members might be added upon discussion with DoS and MoPIC as a facilitating partner for the successful coordination between the different ministries and government institutions, and based on the need to extend the scope of the SP programs in this 2nd version and fill some of the gaps identified the collaboration and coordination of the national institutions in the Statistical-working group will strengthen the capacity of these institutions to monitor social protection indicators and lay the foundations for the creation of comprehensive and integrated social protection statistical systems.

The support to strengthening MoPIC capacities to assess the impacts of fiscal policies on labour market and welfare dynamics will be supported by ILO, the international consultant will work closely with MOPIC team, mainly with the Policies and Studies Department to strengthen in-house capacities to analyse the effects of the Tax-Benefit system on labour market outcomes and wellbeing as well as to undertake policy simulations through static and dynamic microsimulation modelling.

Work on support to the social protection centre in Oman will require close interfacing with staff at the Social Protection Fund will and other key partner institutions in the Sultanate, as well as regional and global partners who can engage in developing the capacities of the centre.

5. Deliverables and Deadlines

Number of working days: 120 days

Below are the proposed deadlines distributed by deliverables:

Deliverables

Deadline

Planned #of days needed

Deliverable 1: Inception Report by May 2nd, 2024

This report will outline the conceptual framework, scope, and implementation plan for the project, covering the modelling work, and statistical bulletin. (5 days required)

Deliverable 2: Analytical Report and Statistical Bulletin Support by 31 October 2024

Produce a detailed report on social protection data in Jordan, identifying sources, gaps, and challenges. Assist in updating protocols for future statistical bulletins by the Department of Statistics and the Statistical Working Group. Provide guidance and support during the development process, incorporating insights from workshops and consultations. Collaborate on drafting and finalizing the 2nd Statistical Bulletin for the Social Protection Sector, ensuring quality and adherence to standards. (30 days required)

Deliverable 3: Scoping Report for MOPIC’s Modelling Capabilities (Phase 1) by 30 June 2024

Relates to activities under Phase 1 above. This report will assess data sources, evaluate existing capacities, recommend connections with academic institutions for support, and help identify members for a national working group. (10 days required)

Deliverable 4: Modelling results and capacity building (Phase 2) by 31 August 2024

Refers to activities under Phase 2 above. Selected analytical and modelling results and capacity building to MoPIC, to develop core component of integrated model allowing assessments of tax-benefit system linkages with labour market outcomes and wellbeing. A concept notes for the subsequent phases of model integration. (35 days)

Deliverable 5: Support to welfare and social protection capacity building in the Arab region. by 30 November 2024

Report on quantitative analytical support on welfare and social analysis analyses, modelling costings and simulation including design document and vision for capacity development on social protection research centre in Oman . (40 days)

6. Supervision

The consultant will report to the social protection team at the ILO and work under the overall guidance and supervision of the Social Protection Specialist and the Regional Social Protection Specialist at the Regional Office for Arab States (ROAS).

7. Payment schedule

The assignment will go on until November 2024. Payment schedule is provided below which is according to the deliverables mentioned in the previous section. The consultant should follow the needed timeline to submit the deliverables considering necessary and adequate time (at least two weeks) to be allocated for review and quality assurance processes of the deliverables by Government counterparts, UNICEF, and ILO teams.

The consultant will be paid upon satisfactory completion and approval of deliverables and upon receipt of signed invoices.

No Advance payment to be made. Payments will be made against each milestone/ deliverable and only upon ILO’s acceptance of the work performed. The terms of payment are Net 30 days, after receipt of invoice and acceptance of work. Payment will be effected by bank transfer in the currency of billing.

Deliverable/s

Deliverable 1, (15% of the total contract) by May 2nd 2024

Deliverable 3, (15 % of the total contract) by 31 October 2024

Deliverable 4, (25 % of the total contract) by 30 June 2024

Deliverable 2, (25 % of the total contract) by 31 August 2024

Deliverable 5, (20 % of the total contract) by 30 November 2024

Four trips to Amman are expected (averaging a week-long each) during the contract period. Tickets and Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) will be reimbursed upon submission of the invoice and boarding pass of each ticket, up to $4,800 for the four tickets and $5,808 for DSA for all trips. If required trips to other countries will be added to the contract.

8. Profile of the consultant and desired qualifications

An international expert with a robust background in social protection, statistical analysis, and policy formulation is required to undertake the tasks outlined in these Terms of Reference (ToRs). The ideal candidate should possess:

• A minimum of a master’s degree in social protection, social studies, public policy, development studies, economics, or a related field.
• At least 15 years of experience in managing research projects and similar assignments, with a focus on monitoring and evaluation of social protection systems and social protection indicators.
• Proficiency in analysing social protection data and a deep understanding of statistics, data, and reports generated by Departments of Statistics.
• Excellent analytical and report-writing skills at an international level.
• Demonstrated expertise in utilizing modelling techniques to assess the impacts of social protection policies and interventions.
• Strong interpersonal communication skills to effectively collaborate with stakeholders and disseminate findings.

The chosen expert will assume a central role in compiling the Statistical Bulletin and conducting modelling work. This multifaceted approach will significantly contribute to the enhancement of social protection initiatives in Jordan. The expert, possessing extensive experience in social protection, statistical analysis, policy formulation, and modelling, will lead efforts to gather, analyse, and interpret data for both the Statistical Bulletin and the modelling work. Their expertise will be instrumental in informing policy decisions and shaping the future trajectory of social protection in Jordan.