Senior Expert – Trade Forecasting Model Development At Adam Smith International

The Revenue Mobilisation, Investment and Trade (REMIT) is a 39-month (2021 – 2025) program funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and is implemented by Adam Smith International (ASI). The program provides technical assistance (TA) to Pakistan with a broader objective to implement reforms for strengthening macroeconomic stability and improving conditions for high and sustained growth, mutual prosperity, job creation, and poverty reduction. The Programme works towards supporting the Government of Pakistan, its relevant ministries, institutions, and departments to strengthen revenue mobilization reforms/initiatives, address investment environment challenges, facilitate trade and drive competitiveness by reducing trade barriers, and improve the macroeconomic policy and its management.

As the world moves further towards globalization, the economic performance and status of any country are tied to its prosperity in international trade. The export of goods and services is a crucial source of foreign exchange earnings which can ease pressure on the balance of payments, boost a country’s industry, and provide job opportunities. To understand why Pakistan’s exports have failed to gain pace, it is important to have a full overview of the export cycle in an economy. A better understanding of the factors determining exports concerning the supply and demand of exports is crucial for evidence-based decision-making, policy formulation, and especially for devising appropriate export promotion strategies.

REMIT is currently seeking an experienced International Trade Forecasting Model Development Expert. This role involves leading the development of advanced forecasting and impact evaluation models to analyze the complexities of Pakistan’s import and export landscape. The successful candidate will play a key role in creating innovative solutions for predicting trade movements and evaluating the effects of policy changes on crucial economic indicators.

The position requires a comprehensive approach, combining economic expertise, advanced modeling techniques, and effective training strategies. The goal is to empower key stakeholders in utilizing these sophisticated tools efficiently

Job Summary

This research aims to examine and project the export and import dynamics of Pakistan through a useful forecasting model. It is motivated by the need for producing a reliable assessment of the foreign trade development of the country and allowing better forecasting of other balance of payments components as well for future planning. The assignment is divided into two phases. In the first phase, the main task is to develop a comprehensive international trade forecasting model along with the manual and training material. In the second phase, a CGE model will be developed to see the impact of any policy changes on key economic variables i.e., GDP, BOP, employment, inflation, and trade revenue. Developing these models would require a careful and multifaceted approach, considering various policy variables and available data. The research should also analyze historical trade data and important economic policy indicators, such as tariffs, exchange rates, and interest rates, as well as identify emerging global trends.

An important aspect of this envisioned forecasting model is its ability to provide detailed predictions, at a very detailed level. Given the complex nature of international trade dynamics, the model must be designed to forecast both exports and imports with a high level of detail. This detailed approach aims to offer a better understanding of trade patterns, allowing for targeted decision-making by the government.

Duties and Responsibilities

1. Model Development:

• Lead the development of a robust international trade forecasting model, considering factors affecting import and export levels.
• Create an impact evaluation model, particularly using CGE modeling techniques, to assess the effects of policy changes on key economic variables.

1. Manual/Guideline Creation:

• Develop comprehensive manuals and guidelines for utilizing the forecasting and impact evaluation models.
• Ensure clarity and user-friendliness of the materials to facilitate effective model implementation.

1. Training Program Management:

• Design and conduct training programs for a batch of master trainers, including government officials, academia, and private sector representatives.
• Provide ongoing support and guidance to ensure proficiency in using the forecasting and impact evaluation models.

1. Data Analysis:

• Analyze historical trade data and relevant economic policy indicators (e.g., tariffs, exchange rates, interest rates) to inform the model development process.
• Identify emerging global trends and incorporate them into the forecasting model.

1. Stakeholder Collaboration:

• Collaborate with government agencies, academic institutions, and private sector entities to gather expertise and ensure the alignment of models with the economic landscape of Pakistan.

1. Continuous Improvement:

• Monitor and evaluate the performance of forecasting models, making necessary adjustments to enhance accuracy.
• Stay updated on advancements in international trade modeling and incorporate innovative approaches as applicable.

Qualifications and Experience:

• A minimum of 15 years of experience in the development of forecasting models.
• Good understanding of economic policies and variables like interest rates, and inflation rates.
• Excellent system development and data expertise for the development models.
• Minimum master’s, preferably PhD qualification in economics, statistics, or related field.
• Strong review and analysis skills, with the ability to review technical policy and legal documents.
• Ability to engage with senior-level government officials, and to facilitate the process of getting things done vis-à-vis timelines, responsibilities, and resources required to deliver individual actions.
• Excellent record keeping, report writing, communications, and presentation skills.
• Excellent oral and written English.

Reporting

The consultant will report to the REMIT Team Lead and REMIT Trade Advisor.