Senior Manager, Vaccine Forecasting (Temporary) At GAVI Alliance

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance is a public-private partnership committed to saving children’s lives and protecting people’s health by increasing equitable use of vaccines in lower-income countries. The Vaccine Alliance brings together implementing country and donor governments, the World Health Organisation, UNICEF, the World Bank, the vaccine industry, technical agencies, civil society, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and other private sector partners. Gavi uses innovative finance mechanisms, including co-financing by recipient countries, to secure sustainable funding and adequate supply of quality vaccines. Since 2000, Gavi has contributed to the immunisation of more than 981 million children and the prevention of more than 16 million future deaths.

THE ROLE

Please note this is a temporary role until 31st December 2024.

This role assumes primary responsibility for vaccine forecasting to support the successful rollout and implementation of the malaria vaccine programmes and other vaccine programmes, as required. The forecasting scope will generally include demand, supply, price, cost dimensions, and clearly articulate the assumptions that form the basis of the forecast. The role will support allocation and approval decision-making on vaccine doses, and contribute to ensuring timely grant processing of those decisions.

Situated in the Vaccine Forecast and Grant Operations (VFGO) team, this role collaborates closely with several other teams, including Vaccine Programmes, Market Shaping, Country Support, and other Finance

department teams. In addition, the role interacts with external organisations, including UNICEF Supply Division and other partners actively engaged in malaria vaccine programmes and other vaccine programmes.

MAIN DUTIES/RESPONSIBILITIES

• Lead vaccine forecasting for malaria programme and other focus vaccine programmes to inform key operational and strategic decisions:
o Forecasts will include consideration of demand, supply, price, and cost dimensions, while also maintaining linkages to related forecasting conducted in other teams, for example impact projections;
o Collaborate with stakeholders to identify forecasting and allocation needs, and plan support;
o Develop and maintain spreadsheet models for forecasting and dose allocations;
o Lead and coordinate with stakeholders the development of forecast scenarios to inform internal and external decision-making processes;
o Communicate forecasts and respond to analysis requests to a wide range of stakeholders internally and externally;
o Clearly articulate the assumptions that form the basis of the forecast;
o Contribute to the design of mitigating actions on risks of demand vs supply unbalance.
• Integrate forecasts for the role’s focus vaccines into broader projections for Gavi’s full portfolio of supported vaccines, including Gavi’s financial forecast;
• Serve as the expert within VFGO team for addressing specialised country-level forecasting challenges and opportunities related to the role’s focus vaccines:
o Adapt guidance, templates, and processes used in country-level vaccine dose requests and forecasting to the malaria vaccine programme and other vaccine programmes, as required;
o Identify relevant engagement opportunities to strengthen country vaccine forecasting in collaboration with Vaccine Programe, country Segments, other functional teams, and partners;
o Provide advice and scrutiny to strengthen country vaccine forecasts, with emphasis on increasing the robustness of grant approvals and the effective doses allocation of limited supplied programmes.
• Support the design and implementation of the malaria vaccine allocation framework and similar allocation processes for other vaccine programmes with constraints on supply available;
• Ensure that grant processing design, implementation, and monitoring supports the timely disbursements and shipments of approved malaria and other focus vaccine doses;
• Regularly monitor and report on actuals versus forecasts for vaccine doses and related components:
o Update assumptions and monitor forecasting risks notably related to limited supply availability, including tracking programme performance and stock level in countries.
• Contribute to continuous improvements efforts in broader processes, methodologies, and tools used in forecasting vaccine doses, serving as focal point on designated subtopics;
• Contribute to areas supporting the core forecasting functions, including, drafting SOPs, updating KPIs, and responding to audit and evaluation requests for information;
• Represent VFGO in meetings/calls with partners and countries on topics related to Gavi forecasting, grant processes, and dose allocations;
• Respond to ad-hoc analysis requests, and provide support to other requests as required including updates to MDs and PPC/Board;

• Act as a backup to others in the VFGO team in their absence.

Note: The essential functions listed in this section are not exhaustive of the job responsibilities; other duties may be assigned consistently with the department needs.

QUALIFICATIONS

ACADEMIC

• Degree in quantitative disciplines related to public health, economics, finance, or a related science or engineering field.

WORK EXPERIENCE

• At least 8 years professional experience in forecasting, or supply and demand planning, roles within pharmaceutical (vaccine preferred), global/public/social health, or FMCG sectors;
• Strategic planning or market analysis experience in a management consulting or product management role;
• Background working with operational and financial information from multiple sources, including data collection, management, reconciliation, quality control, and analysis;
• Experience in reviewing and streamlining operational processes is preferable;
• Background in the design and implementation of forecasting systems or tools is preferable.

SKILLS/COMPETENCIES
• Expertise in understanding, building, and using forecast models in Excel;
• Exceptional analytical skills, able to interpret complex historical data and forecast models for informing operational and strategic decision-making;
• Excellent oral and written communication skills, able to synthesise complex information and communicate across disciplines and diverse stakeholders;
• Ability to understand and integrate into existing complex processes, and identify opportunities for improvement and adaptation;
• Demonstrated organisational skills to deal with multiple priorities, ability to work under pressure and meet deadlines;
• Ability to work independently and collaboratively with others; find solutions to issues and raise risks as appropriate;
• Ability to coordinate complex processes that involve various stakeholders;
• Attention to detail;
• Team-player and client-oriented;
• Highly motivated individual capable of taking initiatives;
• Ability to adapt in rapidly changing environment and within a multi-cultural environment.

LANGUAGES

• Advanced English is required;
• French is desirable.

CONTACTS

• Internal primarily with Vaccine Programmes, Country Support, Market Shaping, and Finance staff;
• External organisations, particularly partner agencies (e.g. UNICEF, WHO, BMGF).