TERMS OF REFERENCE: Unlocking investments for high value adaptation At Solidaridad East & Central Africa actions; A case of Kenya and Tanzania At

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Solidaridad Network is an international solution-oriented civil society organization working through eight regional expertise centers to transform markets to make them more sustainable and inclusive. Our eight regional expertise centers include Asia, Eastern and Central Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, Southern Africa, South America, West Africa, and our global Secretariat in the Netherlands. Solidaridad Eastern and Central Africa, one of the regional centers, headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya with country offices and programmes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. We bring together supply chain players and engage them with innovative solutions to improve production, ensuring the transition to a sustainable and inclusive economy that maximizes the benefit for all. We facilitate the strengthening of local capacity in developing countries, support the creation of enabling environments for economies to thrive, and improve market access. Solidaridad embraces the public-private and people partnership (PPPP) to test innovations, speed up change, and take success to scale.

1.1 Context of the Consultancy

Adaptation, particularly Locally Led Adaptation, is essential for Africa to increase the resilience of its people, infrastructure, and ecosystems to cope with climate shocks and economic distress. The 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that Africa will require up to 86.5 billion USD for adaptation alone by 2030. However, the continent currently receives only about 20%($13 Billion annually 2021-2022) of all climate adaptation finance flows globally (Global Center on Adaptation 2023).

Climate adaptation development pathways offer enormous investment opportunities and have a positive impact on growth (OECD 2021) with a triple dividend of avoided losses, positive economic gains, and enhanced social and environmental benefits. According to this Bloomberg report 2021, the climate adaptation market could be worth $2 trillion a year within the next five years.

Locally led Adaptation deserves far greater business investment but without evidence on where the opportunities are, it’s difficult to make a case.

1.2 Solidaridad ECA regional climate initiatives

In East Africa, 90% of farmland is rainfed and up to 80% of the workforce derive their livelihood from the agriculture sector. The changing climate predictions of shortened growing seasons and precipitation variability pose profound risks to smallholder farmer populations and further exacerbate inequality and poverty levels.

To drive impactful climate action in the region, Solidaridad East and Central Africa has designed and continues to spearhead a range of actions aimed at adapting to and mitigating climate change, while managing natural resources. Agriculture serves as the pivotal entry point for these transformative actions. Through partner collaborative efforts, we have played a vital role in enhancing sustainable landscape management practices, adoption of adaptive agricultural techniques, and capacity enhancement within local communities to facilitate last-mile service delivery, across our countries of operation**.**

Our climate interventions are anchored on the rationale that ‘it is important for the region to climate-proof its economic growth sectors and agriculture is a key growth sector’. Expansion and implementation of climate resilient measures for the sector have the potential to significantly improve livelihoods and bring widespread prosperity to local communities in East Africa.

In this context**, adaptation is the** adoption ​of ​practices ​or ​services ​that ​increase ​one’s ​capacity ​to ​adjust ​to climate ​risks ​and ​shocks*.* Locally led Adaptation actions could necessitate a shift in livelihood, attitude, behaviour, skill set and culture. Adaptation can take many forms: from adjusting planting seasons or switching to drought-resistant varieties to installing early warning systems and water harvesting structures to save people from extreme rainfall events.

2.0 Objective of the assignment & high-level outcome areas

This is one of the first sets of a series of studies aimed at supporting REC ECA to gather evidence on locally led adaptation to improve and build new business cases and investment-ready propositions to contribute towards bridging the gap and attracting adaptation finance. The assignment targets 2 countries; Kenya and Tanzania and should deliver on scalable output result areas replicable to attract adaptation finance within our countries of operation.

2.1 Study questions

• What is the return on investment for prioritised adaptation actions on soil health/ISFM agroforestry and water efficiency and use?
• To what extent has Solidaridad catalyzed the growth ofsustainable agricultural value through its adaptation initiatives over the years?
• Proposed market share for selected adaptation actions against emerging adaptation technologies in the near future and in the context of IPCC Science findings
• What does scale look like in light of integrating ecosystem-based adaptation investments? Is it better for framing adaptation needs?
• What is the outlook/ existing models on small-scale farming adaptation financing?

3. Scope of Work and Responsibilities of Consultants

The study will be conducted in Kenya and Tanzania with a specific focus on target areas in which Solidaridad is and has had an active presence in the last 10 years.

The composition of the study team is at the consultant firm’s discretion. However, Solidaridad recommends that the team comprise a Team Leader (TL) responsible for overall service delivery and to act as the official liaison with Solidaridad.

The consultancy/consultant team will be primarily responsible for:

• Development/design of the study, study tools and their administration
• Identification and supervision of field enumerators/fieldwork
• Generation of Quality (reliability and validity) data/information collected from the field
• Data analysis and preparation of quality reports( Inception, Preliminary findings report and final study report).
• Presentation of all the reports to Solidaridad.

4. Methodology

The methodology for this study will include both direct and indirect data collection, analysis and cross-referencing, and formulating recommendations thematically and as area/site-specific. The Consultant will finalize the methodology to undertake this study in line with the scope of the assessment, presented and refined with the management during the inception meeting.

The methodology used during this assessment will overall, include, but not be limited to the following:

• Review existing relevant secondary information and reports related to project implementation in Kenya and Tanzania.
• Review of previous Solidaridad related project level documents and reports.
• Discuss with key Solidaridad staff, partners, and Key Informants at Office and field implementation levels.
• Carry out field visits in the implementation areas for data collection, observations, and triangulation.
• Hold community-level participatory meetings and focused group discussions for data collection and information gathering.
• Carry out a household-level survey for data collection through structured questionnaires.
• Use of data from global, regional and local institutions or organizations.
• Data analysis and verification of analyzed data.
• Reflection and feedback sessions with the project management team. The final methodology to be adopted shall be discussed and agreed upon with consultants/firm during the inception meeting.

5. Expected deliverables

1. Expression of interest and workplan (EOI) for the study

An inception report with a conceptual framework detailing steps, methodology, and work plan including planned stakeholder consultations

1. Detailed study findings and final report on;

• Return On Investment for prioritized adaptation actions referencing global and regional best practices
• The value of Solidaridad’s adaptation interventions in the context of sustainable agricultural and livelihood growth
• Summary analysis of the market share of current selected adaptation actions against emerging technologies
• Adaptation. Is it a framing issue? The role of ecosystem-based adaptation models in attracting investments and scaling options
• What does the small-scale farming adaptation financing future look like?

6. Budget

The Consultant(s) is expected to propose a budget for the assignment. The Solidaridad team will review all proposals based on the following: a) technical experience to deliver; b) timeframe and methodology; and, c) financial proposal.

7. Qualifications/Competencies/Experience

Consultancy firms/companies with verifiable research work in the Climate Change and Natural Resources Management and who fulfil the following requirements are encouraged to express their interests.

• Relevant degree(s) in Environmental sciences, development studies with a specific biase in Climate Change coursework.
• Strong experience and knowledge of qualitative and quantitative research methods and sampling strategies
• Firm/Consultants statement on the understanding and interpretation of the TOR
• Experience in designing and conducting studies using experimental or quasi-experimental techniques.
• Statistical analysis skills and strong proficiency with data analysis packages.
• Proven experience for the last 5 years in conducting endline study surveys, impact studies, and evaluations, preferably in the Environment and climate Change Sector in Kenya, Tanzania and the East Africa region.
• Research experience with smallholder farming communities is an added advantage
• Excellent communication and written skills in English and Swahili.
• Company registration and KRA PIN certificates

8. Contract Period

The overall time frame of the survey will be 60 days

9. Conditions

The proposed work will be carried out under contract. The contract will be drawn up by Solidaridad ECA after the final candidate has been selected. The consultant will assume all fiscal responsibilities relative to his/her tax status and demand within the framework of this agreement. The consultant will be subject to Solidaridad ECA’s management procedures at all times.