TOR: CONFLICT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, MAPPING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (REF: ACT-CMRA-22-2022) At Act Change Transform

CONFLICT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, MAPPING AND RISK ASSESSMENT

(Kenya Electoral Conflicts Mitigation and Civic/Voter Education Support (ECCES) Program)

1.0 Background

Act Change Transform (Act!) is a not-for profit non-governmental organization that was established in Kenya in September 2001 and registered under the provisions of Non-Governmental Organizations Coordination Act of 1990. With an organizational vision of empowered communities living productive lives in dignity, Act! focuses on building the capacity of individuals and communities, thus empowering them to get involved in the decisions and management of their own development.

Act! approaches its development work through three broad programmatic areas; 1) Peace Building and Conflict Transformation, 2) Democracy and Human Rights, 3) Environment and Natural Resources.

Act! through its Democracy and Human Rights (DHR) program received funding from USAID KEA to implement a 3(three) year Kenya Electoral Conflicts Mitigation and Civic/Voter Education Support (ECCES) Programme. In this Programme, Act! is leading a consortium of three Kenyan development organisations with rich collective expertise and experience of more than 50 years collectively in the areas of Democracy, Governance and Human Rights, Civil Society Strengthening and Gender in Kenya. URAIA Trust is the co-applicant, while our Strategic Implementing Partner is the National Youth Bunge Association. The Programme purposes to address the following: (1). Elections violence and its impacts on inclusion, participation of women, youth and persons with disability as candidates and voters; (2). Misinformation, disinformation and withholding of key elections information (political manipulation) critical for effective participation of all eligible citizens as voters and candidates; (3). Delayed and sometimes poorly managed voter and civic education that has marginalized youth, women and PWDs as voters/candidates; (4). Weak participation of civil society, women and youth in other democratic processes around (pre and post) the elections; and (5). Human rights violations and securing justice for victims of electoral conflicts/violence. In year 1(one), Act! implemented intervention to address the endemic problems in 19 Counties in Kenya, namely: – Mombasa, Kilifi, Garissa, Isiolo, Kiambu, Uasin-Gishu, Nandi, West Pokot, Laikipia, Tana-River, Nakuru, Migori, Kisumu, Bungoma, Kwale, Kajiado, Lamu, TransNzoia & Nairobi.

Between March and May 2022, Act! commissioned a baseline study and mapping of electoral conflict drivers and risk analysis with the aim of: assessing and updating key and emerging conflict dynamics, including possible drivers’/root causes related to the forthcoming August 2022 elections; mapping Conflict Management Panels (CMPs) and other community based peace committees and agencies actively promoting peace, cohesion and integration in the counties; and examining existing early warning and early response mechanisms in the target counties. The study made far-reaching observations and recommendations that were used to prioritize electoral conflict prevention and mitigation interventions and enhance the participation of CSOs, women and youth in democratic processes around elections. The following were some of the observations;

1.1 Poverty and unemployment are major causes of electoral violence. They are triggered by political manipulation and incitement, and because of ignorance and insufficient voter education the citizenry is easily manipulated. Other salient root causes include; claims and counter claims on land ownership among communities, politicization of ethnicity, weak and untrusted state institutions that lacked the capacity to effectively deal with electoral conflict and a history of impunity especially among the political class and their supporters.

1.2 Electoral disputes can be best resolved through civic/voter education, use of community peace structures, and, strengthening IEBC and other electoral institutions to increase voters trust.

1.3 Conflict Management Panels (CMPs) constitute a critical part of the Early Warning Early Response system in the 2017 elections however few people had knowledge about it in their locality.

1.4 Women aspirants yet faced a number of structural barriers ahead of the 2022 elections. These included the prevailing culture of patriarchy where politics was seen as a male domain, lack of financial resources to mount a successful campaign and prevalence of violence in the political space.

Against these observations, a largely peaceful environment prevailed in the country in the pre-election and post-election periods. Casual comparisons with previous elections show that the 2022 election was much more peaceful than previous elections. A technical base/analysis is necessary to buttress this and further to gather information that allows for adaptive programming around electoral/political violence mitigation within the 2027 elections cycle. In view of this, Act! intends to conduct a second conflict sensitive and risk assessment study.

Specifically, the study will provide an overview of the post-election conflict context and trends; analyse the roles that various conflict management players played in the 2022 elections, challenges faced and lessons learned; and, make comparisons on electoral/political dynamics in 2022 and 2017 and what contributed to the favourable result in 2022. The analysis will provide Act! with a deeper understanding on effective conflict sensitive approaches and make recommendations on electoral conflict drivers that need to be prioritized as mitigation points in the 2027 elections cycle.

In this regard, Act! seeks to engage the services of a consultant (s) to conduct this study.

2.0 Justification for the Conflict Sensitivity Analysis, Mapping and Risk Assessment

While there is prevailing peace after the August 2022 elections, there are still a number of Kenyans who are disgruntled with the election outcome and the sense of disenfranchisement, isolation and desperation could push people to the edge now, or at the 2027 election. This could result into a claw back to the gains made in 2022. The delimitation of consistency boundaries is premised to be undertaken in 2023. Negative peace presents a fluid environment which could likely trigger conflicts in the 2027 electoral cycle. A current Conflict Sensitivity and Risk Assessment analysis is essential to forestalling this. The analysis will advise actors and partners on the sensitivities around electoral conflicts for planning accordingly. To this end the Study is equally a risk management tool for the ECCES Program and other programs within the USAID Kenya inclusive Governance Accountability, Performance and Participation (Kenya-IGAPP) frameworks. It will be advisory to the independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) during the delimitation of constituency boundaries, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), the National Steering Committee on Peace Building (NCS) and other security sector and peace building actors, over and above providing a critical technical base for other CSOs and the media.

Contextually, this study is a critical step to sustainable peace. Programmatically, it is a tool that informs the development of more comprehensive and coherent strategies, sound engagements with key players particularly in government, and the development of conflict management/peace building interventions founded on lessons on what has worked. The conflict perspective under the ECCES Program’s interventions revolves around electoral conflicts. The study will therefore, as of necessity, distinguish between drivers of electoral conflicts, and other conflict drivers, and make a targeted programming focus for the 2027 elections cycle.

3.0 Specific objectives of the consultancy

Specific Objectives

3.1 Analyze the post-election environment and identify threats to peaceful co-existence from an electoral conflict perspective (as contra-distinguished from other conflicts).

3.2 Develop a comparison analysis on electoral/political dynamics in 2022 and 2017 with a focus to but not limited to what contributed to the favourable result in 2022, roles played various conflict management players, challenges, and the lessons learnt.

3.3 Understand the effectiveness of the electoral conflict mitigation and peace building interventions and approaches employed in 2022 by Act! and other actors and document the lessons learned and which should be replicated.

3.4 Identify potential synergies and opportunities for mainstreaming peace building and conflict resolution approaches for planned year 2 (two) interventions.

3.5 Determine status of ECCES program custom indicators in the Monitoring Evaluation and Learning plan. (to be discussed at the inception stage)

4.0 Proposed Approach

The approach will involve among others desk research and field visits/research. The draft report will also gain from the input of stakeholders at a validation workshop.

The detailed approach will be as follows:

• 4.1 Desk research: The consultant will undertake literature review of various studies conducted by actors in government, CSOs and the international community on the 2022 elections and the peace intersections therein. This will include studies carried out by Act!, K-IGAPP Partners, NCIC, KNCHR, among others. For comparison purposes, various reports on the 2017 election and other elections will be reviewed.
• 4.2 Field research: Based on the justification above, and other electoral environment considerations contained in ECCES reports, the consultant will suggest a list of at least 9 counties and will collect data using a variety of methods including questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, sample survey, observation and photography among others. The data will be collected from national and county government institutions and officials (including those related to security), CSOs, community leaders, women, youth, PWDs among others. The suggested 9 counties and selection criteria should be included in the expression of interest.
• 4.3 Validation workshop: The consultant will produce a report and present it to stakeholders in a validation meeting and the feedback used to finalize the report. This is without prejudice to the requirement by the funding partner that the consultant present the findings at a related forum.

5.0 Reporting and Supervision

The consultant will work under the overall supervision of the ECCES Chief of Party with support from M&E Specialist and other ECCES program staff. The deliverables will be assessed against the provisions of the scope of work set for the assignment.

6.0 Deliverables of the consultant(s) and timeframe

6.1 Inception report, will include the methodology, data collection tools and detailed workplan by 9th January 2023.

6.2 Draft Report: This report will contain all the components of the study by 31st January 2023.

6. 3Facilitation of Stakeholder Review Validation Workshop: The draft report will be reviewed by Act! and subjected to stakeholder review during a validation workshop to be facilitated by the Consultant by 15th February 2023.

6.4 Final Conflict Sensitivity Study Report: A final report incorporating comments from both the Act! reviewers and the validation workshop will be submitted to Act! by 28th February 2023

7.0 Qualification of the applicant

The applicant or Team should have a minimum of a Master’s degree in social science especially political science, law, monitoring and evaluation or related courses and at least 10 years’ experience in research and/in managing and evaluating Governance programs.

8.0 Payment Plan

8.1 1st payment upon submission of the inception report -30%

8.2 2nd and final payment upon submission of the final report-70%