1 SUMMARY
Working title
The Unequal Future: Asia’s Struggle for Justice in a Warming, Wired World
Commissioning manager: Mustafa Talpur
Author: Consultant
Project manager: Mustafa Talpur
Media lead: Sara Khan
Launch date: November 03, 2025,
Type of product: Briefing paper (8,500 words, about 20 pages) except references
Oxfam campaign/branding: Oxfam/Even it Up
Publisher/s: Oxfam [Asia regional platform, Oxfam in Vietnam and Oxfam philipans], Fight Inequality Alliance (TBC)
Purpose
Oxfam Asia produced Asia regional briefing on inequality in 2022 for post covid scenario.
This paper builds on the 2022 paper which explored economic inequality in Asia, widening its lens to reflect current intersecting crises that are redefining power and exclusion across the region. Originally commissioned to address imbalances of wealth, gender, and access to basic services, the updated scope now brings in deeper analysis on shrinking civic space, unequal access to digital technologies, and the accelerating impacts of the climate emergency. As wealth continues to concentrate among elites, marginalized communities face a triple burden: reduced ability to advocate and organize; limited equitable, inclusive, and safe access to digital technologies; and increasing vulnerability to climate shocks. Through this research, Oxfam aims to provide bold evidence, powerful storytelling, and transformative recommendations that will shape advocacy efforts in Asia and equip grassroots allies, media, and policymakers with tools to challenge systemic inequality.
Following will be the key considerations for revision of the paper:
- Update 2022 analysis on economic inequality across Asia, with fresh data and emerging trends
- If there is any latest data available on billionaire or wealth distribution, we need to get stats for Asia especially comparing three years ago and now, how Asian billionaires are doing.
- Any update on poverty stats to show contrast
- Examine how shrinking/shifting civic and democratic space undermines advocacy against rising inequality
- Explore widening digital inequality, especially the implications of digital divides and digitalization of society
- Integrate climate vulnerability as a structural driver of inequality and exclusions
- Explore positive stories and actions that governments are taking to address inequality to inspire change
- Equip Oxfam country teams, allies, and regional actors with stats, case studies (can be taken from recent two country inequality reports from Nepal and Philippines as well as Nepal CRI), and campaign-ready content
- Advance bold, feminist, green, and inclusive reforms to shift power and improve equity across the region
The paper will provide necessary contents to Oxfam country programmes in Asia, partners and allies for public engagement.
Audience
- Primary: Informed public, Young digital platform users, civil society organizers
- Secondary: Policymakers, donors, business leaders,
- Style & Tone: Bold, relatable, fact-based, and campaign-ready
2 TERMS OF REFERENCE
Proposition
Asia stands at a crossroads. Historic gains in poverty reduction and economic growth are at risk of reversal amid escalating inequality, shrinking/shifting civic space, and deepening digital and climate divides. The region’s structural inequalities—rooted in wealth concentration, gender discrimination, caste-based exclusion, and ethnic marginalization—have become more entrenched. Public health, education, and social protection systems remain underfunded and inaccessible for the poorest.
At the same time governments across Asia are imposing restrictions on protest, curtailing press freedom, and silencing dissent both online and offline. This erosion of democratic space further undermines the ability of civil society to advocate for redistribution. These civic constraints are not separate from economic inequality—they reinforce it, enabling elite capture and suppressing voices demanding justice.
The digital revolution, while full of promises, is replicating these disparities. As a result, individuals in vulnerable positions and marginalized groups such as women, rural populations, and low-income communities, rarely enjoy unconditional, safe, meaningful, voluntary, and affordable access to digital technologies. This has a direct impact on nowadays’ enjoyment of fundamental rights related to education, employment, and political participation.
Additionally, the climate emergency disproportionately affects those already pushed to the margins, compounding vulnerabilities and threatening livelihoods.
Given the Oxfam and other powerful institutions such as IMF, WB and ADB’s narrative building on inequality, many governments in Asia during last decade or so have introduced progressive policies such as social protection, universal access to health and investment in climate adaptation.
Contents
Executive Summary
This section will summarise the briefing paper and the main arguments in a pointed way, including the key and powerful Statistics on wealth, income, gender, ethnic, and caste inequalities with additional layers of civic space and climate change as well as our radical solutions and policy recommendations to close the inequality gap, and the vision set out for a fair/human economy that cares for all citizens and prevents future crises. Also make an argument on intersecting dimension exacerbating inequalities such as climate change, reduced civic space and digital divide. Summary can also bring in positive stories that can inspire.
Chapter 1 – Inequality in Asia (2,000 words)
This chapter will reveal the scale of economic inequality in Asia. It looks at economic inequality from both a vertical lens (inequality between rich and poor) and a horizontal lens (inequality between various strata of population such as gender or caste).
It will show that the current levels of inequality – which concentrate wealth in the hands of a few ultra-rich men and pushes women to the bottom of the economy – are not inevitable, but the result of a man-made economic model founded on capitalism, neoliberalism, racism, and patriarchy.
Our arguments will be underpinned by big killer facts on the following:
- Economic inequality has increased: increase in Gini coefficient in Asia, share of different deciles/quintiles in national income and any other income distribution measures comparing previous report data in 2022
- Wealth inequality: Share of different income groups in national wealth as well as regional combined wealth.
- Billionaires: Statistics on Asian billionaires and their share in overall wealth, if possible, country wise where data is available. This will show the impact on numbers and Killer facts on wealth/income and gender.
- Increase in poverty and geographic distribution. There is some new data by World Bank on poverty.
- Projections on the impact of an increase/ decrease in inequality on poverty levels
The chapter will also explore and include positive stories that how governments and other institutions have taken or taking steps to address extreme inequality by introducing progressive policies such as increase in social spending, progressive taxation, progressive laws, reducing gender gap etc..
Chapter 2: Repression and Riches: The Civic-Economic Nexus
Democracy is backsliding across Asia, governments are increasingly tightening restrictions on fundamental freedoms through laws that limit protest, curb free speech, and increase surveillance. These measures are often justified under the guise of national security concerns but in practice, they stifle dissent and marginalize and suppress voices challenging inequality and elite capture.
Elite safeguarding through repression, the erosion of civic space works in tandem with growing economic inequality by protecting powerful interests from scrutiny. When civil society is weakened, the rich benefit from unchecked profit accumulation.
Economic Inequality deepens without vibrant civic engagement; policies remain skewed in favour of rich. Regressive tax structures, austerity cuts prioritize the wealthy, while communities at the bottom lack representation, advocacy channels.
Public Protest both online and offline—led by farmers, women, workers, and youth—are vital agents of redistributive change. From online campaigns to land rights demonstrations and anti-austerity marches, public protest is not just a democratic tool but an economic one. Suppressing these movements stalls progress toward fair wages, public services, and climate resilience.
Case Studies of Crackdown and Capture in India, sweeping anti-protest laws have targeted farmers opposing deregulation. In Myanmar, post-coup repression has coincided with wealth consolidation among military-linked businesses. In the Philippines, digital surveillance curbs dissent against oligarchs and undermines online organizing. These examples reflect how shrinking civic space benefits entrenched elites.
Regional data shows a sharp increase in protest bans, NGO license restrictions, and press freedom violations since 2020—while wealth concentration and corporate influence have surged. Countries with the most severe civic constraints often show the widest income gaps and least redistributive policies.
The curb on civic space is not equal, countries like Nepal, Timore Leste provide positive example, it will be important to bring these as well to demonstrate that governments/democracies can survive with more space without fear.
Chapter 3: The Digital Divide – Inequality Online and Offline
Access to the internet, digital devices, and mobile connectivity remains highly uneven across Asia. Urban elites benefit from high-speed broadband and state-of-the-art technology, while rural communities, informal settlements, and disadvantaged populations often struggle with unreliable infrastructure or complete exclusion.
From an access and equity perspective, it is key that individuals in vulnerable positions and marginalized groups – such as women, LGBTQIA+, migrants and indigenous peoples – have a safe, meaningful, voluntary and affordable access to a baseline set of digital technologies.
Women and girls, particularly in rural areas, face compounded barriers in accessing digital spaces. From cultural norms that limit device use to lower digital literacy and safety concerns, they are routinely marginalized from online learning, banking, work platforms, and political participation. The gendered digital divide reinforces systemic inequality and curtails women’s economic empowerment in a rapidly digitizing world.
Digital education and remote work options surged after Covid-19, but access to them has been highly uneven. While affluent students and professionals transitioned smoothly online, low-income households with limited devices and connectivity were left behind. This gap demonstrates the importance for digital technologies to be appropriate and proportional to people’s needs.
Governments have largely failed to invest adequately in equitable digital infrastructure and inclusive, consultative digital policies. As a result, state and non-state actors promote digitalization processes that fail to ensure adequate provisions ensuring that all affected members of society – especially the most vulnerable and marginalized– are able to access and use digital technologies safely, securely, and equitably, in addition to having a voice in their system design.
Chapter 4: Climate Crisis and Vulnerability in Asia
Across Asia, climate change is disproportionately affecting low-income, rural, Indigenous, and coastal communities. From crop failures and flash floods to rising sea levels and water scarcity, these populations face repeated environmental shocks with limited access to recovery resources. Their vulnerability is rooted in historical exclusion, insufficient adaptation investment.
Climate-induced disasters are eroding hard-earned livelihoods. Agricultural workers face soil degradation and unpredictable weather patterns, while urban informal workers struggle with heat stress and health hazards. Displacement, asset loss, and food insecurity are becoming more common.
Richer communities, cities, and countries are better equipped with climate shields —disaster insurance, early warning systems, and adaptive technology—while poorer areas are left exposed. This resilience gap means that climate crises widen existing inequalities.
While governments peddle green recovery plans, few prioritize equity. Investments often flow into urban, private-sector-led initiatives that exclude marginalized populations. Climate finance mechanisms must be democratized—funds should target locally-led adaptation, renewable energy for the poor, and resilience-building for frontline communities.
There are movements around green taxonomy, ESG frameworks, circular economy, plastic regulation, and green tech (e.g., smart agriculture, green mobility) gaining traction.
There is also an emerging leadership in climate mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance in the region. For instance, countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia and recently ASEAN has shown strong policy reforms and commitments. These include energy transition strategies, sustainable finance initiatives, and efforts to localize adaptation solutions—trends that deserve recognition and could serve as entry points for engagement.
Chapter 5 – A Blueprint for Equity: Radical Solutions
Starting with positive stories from the region that can help to engage in conversation with government especially in the following areas with room for improvement, these could be cluster in:
- Addressing persistent inequalities
- Addressing emerging/intersectional/intergenerational challenges
- Proposing new development models could serve as the “hook” for constructive engagement with governments.
Progressive taxation—targeting extreme wealth, pandemic and climate windfall profits, and corporate dividends—can generate the resources needed to invest in justice. Governments must collaborate regionally to prevent tax competition and leakage while ensuring transparency and accountability. By taxing the richest individuals and firms effectively, Asia can redistribute power and uplift communities trapped in poverty.
Universal Social Protection, education and Healthcare- A just society requires robust public systems that protect every citizen. Establishing universal education, healthcare and social protection—including income support, maternity benefits, disability allowances, and pensions—ensures dignity and security for all. Scaling up investments in public services reduces precarity and builds long-term resilience, while also reducing gender gaps and economic exclusion.
Protecting Civic Space and Democracy- Governments must repeal restrictive laws, ensure freedom of expression and assembly, and protect civil society actors from harassment and surveillance. Building strong democratic institutions and participatory platforms ensures that policymaking reflects the voices of the many—not just the elite few.
Digital Rights and Inclusive Technology– Equity in the digital age means guaranteeing unconditional, safe, meaningful, voluntary, and affordableaccess to the digital technologies. Governments must invest in digital infrastructure and digital literacy programs, particularly for women, youth, and rural communities.
Gender-Transformative Economic Recovery- From unpaid care work to wage discrimination, gender inequality persists across Asia. Governments must recognize care work as central to economic productivity and invest in care infrastructure. Support for women-led enterprises, equal pay legislation, and representation in economic planning are essential. A feminist economic model challenges patriarchal systems and centers wellbeing, justice, and collective prosperity.
Climate Justice and climate finance – Addressing climate crisis whether Just Energy Transition or adaptation can not be achieved without recognizing historical injustices and contributing fair share to climate finance by today’s rich countries. Investment in locally led adaptation, renewable energy, sustainable transport, and climate-smart agriculture can create millions of decent jobs. But without a just transition, low-income and marginalized workers risk being left behind. Government in Asia collectively demand public climate finance but also be transparent in climate spending and ensure that front line vulnerable communities receive due share of climate finance.
Countries and regions
Timor Leste, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Philippines, Hong Kong/china, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan.
Gender content
This paper has a focus on intersectionality of economic inequality with gender inequality (incl. underpaid and unpaid care work, impact on jobs i.e.) and will approach this from a rights-based perspective. There will be a focus on gender as one of the intersecting inequalities across all the chapters. In both digital divide and climate impact chapter, the paper will integrate gender aspect.
Sensitivities and risks
This paper is very high profile, so all facts and figures need to be very thoroughly checked. A methodological annex will be published attached to the paper including a Q&A in response to the basic criticisms of our main powerful facts and other content that we identify as provoking questions.
Launch and distribution plans
The paper will be launched during the week of Asia Pacific Social Forum, International Civil Society week and Asia democracy Assembly happening from 1-5 November 2025 in Bangkok. This will be an Asia wide regional campaign moment and continue till Davos global moment.
The regional campaign moment includes a full media strategy and extensive media support, as well as a public campaign strategy and extensive public campaign support and engagement with allies along with a private sector engagement plan.
Oxfam in Philippines and Vietnam are part of Global GINI programme. The paper and events in Bangkok will be joint efforts by regional platform and these two countries teams along with fight inequality alliance Asia.
3 PRODUCTION AND PROMOTION
Expected length: 8,500 words
Web content
The media and communication strategy are part of the regional moment, which will come with a full campaign strategy, including social and traditional media and blogs.
4 SCHEDULE
TOR signed off: 17 July 2025: 5 working days
Research, data, powerful facts, case studies and other input due: 31st August: 25 working days
Zero drafts (consultant) Including time for commissioning manager or project group to review: 15 September: 15 working days
First draft due: 30 September: 15 working days
Review and sign off: October 15: Review Group: Max Lawson, Nafkote, Lorenzo, all country directors in Asia including Philippine and Hong Kong ED and Asia RD: 10 working days
Revisions by author: 17-21 October: 2 working days
Copy edits: 22-24 October: 3 working days
Author checks and revisions; killer facts checked and agreed: 27-28 October: 1 working day
Final draft due, including summary: 31 October
Graphics Designed: October 15-25: 10 working days
Embargoed English text available: Final signed off text and killer facts in English ready for translation and media work: 31 October, 2025: 1 working day
Publication date: 1100 HRS 03.11.2025, Bangkok time
How to apply
To apply, please submit your technical and financial proposals (quoted in USD, inclusive of taxes) to Project Team Leader “TEI MAV+ In Rwanda” (M/W) by 12 August 2025.
Please note that we will only consider consultants that meet the requirements.
QUERIES
Please contact Head of Regional Advocacy and Campaigns, Mustafa Talpur, Mustafa.Talpur@oxfam.org for any query related to the TOR