Expression of Interest: Annual Resilience Measurement – SomReP At World Vision

Terms of Reference for Annual Resilience Measurement

Programme Name: Somalia Resilience Programme (SomReP)

Target Locations: 10 districts of SomReP target Districts

Programme Goal: Increase the resilience of chronically vulnerable Somali people, households, communities and systems to recurrent climatic shocks and other related risks in targeted pastoral, agro-pastoral and peri-urban livelihood zones by 2029

Specific Objective: Sustainably improve food security and livelihoods of Somali people, households, communities through effective risk management, protection of productive assets, improved governance of resilience structures, and promotion of innovations and evidence-based programming.

Intermediary Outcomes:

Improved capacity of households to implement disaster risk reduction and positive coping strategies to mitigate the immediate effect of exposure to shock;
Improved capacity of individuals, households and communities to adhere to positive development trajectories; despite exposures to shocks and utilize strategies designed to allow adaptation to rapid and slow on-set hazards;
Improved capacity of households to engage in strategies for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth to enhance food security and resilience;
governance structures at community, district and national levels are strengthened to enhance participation, transparency and accountability;
Programming, policy actions and decisions on resilience in Somalia informed on evidence-based resilience research, learning and innovation

Key Partners: ADRA, ACF, CARE, COOPI, DRC, Oxfam, Shaqodoon, and World Vision Somali (Consortium lead).

Assessment Type: Annual Resilience Measurement (ARM 2026)

Target Locations: 10 active SomReP districts (pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban, and displacement settings). Badhan, Bossaso, Burao, Ceel Afweyne, Dollow, Eyl, Laas Caanood, Lughaya, Hargeisa and Salahley

Start and End Date: November 2026

Anticipated Reporting Date: December 2025 (Final Consolidated Report)

1.0 Background

About SomReP

Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP) is a consortium of seven international NGOs and one local NGO namely Action Against Hunger (AAH), the Adventist Development and Relief Agency International (ADRA), Cooperative Assistance for Relief Everywhere (CARE), Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Oxfam, World Vision Somalia and Shaqodoon whose aim is to tackle the challenge of mitigating the effects of recurrent shocks and stressors and alleviating the chronic vulnerability that is common among pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and peri-urban households across Somalia. The program was designed to address communities’ unique needs by building resilient livelihoods, a strategy founded on the lessons learned and best practices of the consortium members.

With support from DFAT, EU, SIDA, BMZ and SDC, SomReP has been implementing interventions with the aim of enhancing the resilience of vulnerable populations. To achieve this, SomReP programming supports resilience through:

Livelihoods & food security: HHs in targeted communities have improved access to productive livelihoods for enhanced food access and diversity;
Social Safety Nets: HHs in target communities have their livelihoods and assets protected during shocks and stressors through the establishment and strengthening of social safety nets, including the use of crisis modifier mechanisms such as Savings Group Schemes;
Natural resource management: Eco–system health improved through promotion of equitable and sustainable natural resource management;
Local governance capacity building: Communities, civil society and local institutions are better equipped with resilience strategies and response capacities to cope with recurrent shocks and stressors; and

The rationale behind the theory of change and impact pathways is that implementation of such interventions would eventually result in positive changes in well-being indicators which implicitly is indicative of enhanced adaptive, absorptive and transformative capacity. The program targets 45,350 households and is implemented in the districts of; Badhan, Bossaso, Burao, Ceel Afweyne, Dollow, Eyl, Laas Caanood, Lughaya, Hargeisa and Salahley,

At the beginning of all these projects, SomReP conducted baseline surveys to establish benchmark indicators. In addition, since 2016/17 SomReP has conducted annual resilience measurements to document impact of the SomReP programmes and assess the progress made annually on key outcomes and output indicators. This resilience measurement study will build on these studies to document the programme’s impact and assess the progress so far made on key outcomes and output indicators. SomReP would also want to take advantage of this assessment to establish whether the hypotheses and assumptions set to underpin SomReP Theory of Change and causal linkages between inputs and activities and outcomes and impacts were plausible and valid. The results of the assessment will be particularly important for SomReP not only to understand the impact of the project, test the theory of change underpinning the strategies and interventions delivered, but will also inform future strategic programming and project development. The 2025 round will be the fifth consecutive annual assessment and will generate nationally comparable data across 10 active districts where SomReP is currently operating.

The table below provides the core and outcomes indicators for SomReP: https://wvi.box.com/s/l3dcl2kath9tjj2atu95e81k8ttpbher

2.0 Purpose and Scope of Annual Resilient Measurement

2.1 Annual Resilience Measurement

The scope and focus of the ARM is to explore the outcomes and impact of the programme, in order to facilitate an understanding amongst the consortium programme staff and stakeholders of the extent to which the envisaged change has been realized. It will track progress against SomReP’s Theory of Change, identify resilience trajectories, and provide actionable evidence for adaptive management.

ARM 2026 will generate nationally representative data on resilience capacities, food security, livelihoods, and coping mechanisms across 10 districts using household surveys, KIIs with local leaders and government, and FGDs with women, youth, and marginalized groups.

2.2. ARM 2026 Objectives:

Assess the relevance, and effectiveness of the program strategies and interventions in relation to the context and the programme strategic framework, documenting the lessons learnt and best practices to inform future adaptations of interventions typologies.
Establish the extent to which the consortium has achieved its purpose and delivered on intended outputs, and whether the intended outcomes were met in relation to resilience programming
Assess the impact of the programme with particular focus on establishing changes that have occurred as measured by resilience capacity indices (absorptive capacity index, adaptive capacity index and transformative capacity index ) and wellbeing indicators (provided for in SomReP master logical framework) for example food security and coping strategies indicators (i.e. HHS, FCS, rCSI), ownership of household and community productive assets (climate sensitive and non-climate sensitive assets), income and expenditures among others; and disaggregated to livelihood zones and other vulnerabilities.
Assess the effectiveness and efficiency of programme interventions in strengthening the response capacity of various shocks and stresses including COVID-19 effects, Desert Locust, Conflict, drought, Floods etc.
Employ a quasi-experimental design to compare households and communities directly targeted by SomReP interventions with non-targeted or indirectly exposed groups, thereby strengthening attribution of observed changes to program interventions.
Compare findings with the last four rounds of ARM surveys (2021–2025) to analyze longitudinal trends in resilience trajectories, highlight persistent gaps, and identify lessons on what has worked or not worked in different livelihood and displacement contexts.

Gender specific questions

Has there been an increase in women’s /girls’ access to health, education, information, training, or other services? How does this compare to men’s or boys’ access to these services? Did the program address women’s greatest needs for human capital?
How has the program influenced women’s access to resources and their ability to assert rights in comparison to men, and which barriers to women’s economic empowerment were most effectively addressed?
Were there any discernible disparities in benefits between men and women, and how effectively did the program incorporate women’s perspectives in community-focused discussions?
How have external conditions and power dynamics uniquely impacted women’s and girls’ experiences and opportunities?
Based on the program’s results, what essential changes are recommended to enhance gender equality in SomReP’s next phase?

3.0 Study Population, Scope and Methodology

3.1 Study Population and Sampling Frame

The study population and sampling frame will comprise of 10 districts where the programme has been implemented targeting households, government line ministries focal points, local community committee leaders as well as the different community groups and leaders. The sampling frame will constitute target project beneficiaries, and community governance structures from the districts. The sample frame will further include strategic partners such as government departments who have been involved in coordinating the programme.

3.2 Survey Design

The study will use a cross sectional survey research design that incorporates both qualitative and quantitative data collection as well as analysis techniques. The consultant will be expected to propose an appropriate and detailed methodology for conducting this study including the appropriate design for the nested quasi-experimental component. This includes specifying the data collection methods, how to phase the implementation to ensure that there is rigorous data triangulation between the data collection methods, data collection tools corresponding to type of information to be collected and the target population, sample size for both qualitative and quantitative data together with the calculation formula used to arrive at such with all parameters defined. The qualitative data needs to indicate the key stakeholders to be involved in the key informant interviews as well as the focus group discussions. The consultant will further have to proposed the methodological approach (research design, sampling approach) for conduct tracer studies for TVET and VSLA participants.

The consultant will develop data collection tools that will need to be approved by the project M&E team. He/She will ensure that the survey tools designed will cover all outcome level indicators as well as add more questions to the questionnaire as appropriate.

The Project M&E team recommends that the consultant employs mobile data collection for quantitative data. The consultant will also be responsible for engaging and managing the team of data enumerators during the data collection period. The consultant will make use of SomReP data management platform for the quantitative data collection.

4.0 Logistics

The consultants will be responsible for their own logistics (i.e. transport and accommodation if necessary). The consultants will also be responsible for their own insurances, vaccinations, health, and security preparedness.

5.0 Ethical and Technical Requirements

The successful consultant will be responsible for ensuring that data collection and analysis approaches are designed to mitigate child protection risks and protect participants’ privacy and wellbeing by establishing and following credible ethical evaluation principles:

The lead consultant shall ensure that all survey participants are fully informed of the objectives of the study, their right to decline participation, and their liberty to withdraw at any stage. Informed consent from beneficiaries is mandatory prior to commencing data collection. In addition, where applicable, and depending on the nature of the study, the consultant shall also seek approval from an Institutional Review Board (IRB) i.e. Somalia Bureau of Statistics or any other agencies.
The lead consultant shall ensure that all research assistants are oriented on research ethics and child protection policy prior to commencement of data collection.
The lead consultant shall ensure that each member of the research team adheres to research ethics and child protection policies.
The lead consultant shall ensure that every piece of information collected is treated with all the confidentiality that it deserves.
The lead consultant shall ensure that survey participants to be involved in the study are well informed of the objectives of the study and their consent is sought prior to starting data collection. Participants will be informed of their rights to decline participation in the study and that they will be at liberty to withdraw from the process if they wish to do so.

6.0 Roles and Responsibilities of ARM Stakeholders: Consultant

Consultants’ Scope of Work

The study is to be conducted by a consultant with the below list of scope of work.

Acquire all clearances and permissions necessary to collect data in all needed regions where the project will be implemented
Preparation for the study: planning scope, engagement, logistics and schedule; documented in a clear inception plan together with the work plan including schedule for field work
Develop inception report before actual roll out of the assessment detailing study methodology and appropriate/relevant data collection tools, sampling and workplan.
Work closely with SomReP Head of Quality Assurance, M&E and Knowledge Management during the design of the methodology/ tools; agree on the tools that will be used.
Incorporate feedback into tools and reports which will be given from the SomReP team.
Adequately train and supervise enumerators/Research assistants across the locations during the data collection exercise.
Undertake internal quality control procedures to ensure data collected is comprehensive, consistent and accurate
Make visits to data collection sites and lead primary data collection and analysis
Incorporate feedback from the project team and other stakeholders.
Conduct Focus group discussions and Key informant interviews with sampled stakeholders including government, partner frontline staff, Consortium staff etc
Conduct data analysis for the quantitative and qualitative data.
Draft ARM 2025 Report with resilience indicator tables.
Final Consolidated Report synthesizing findings across ARM, with cross-cutting lessons and recommendations.
Submit a summary brief of the results (not more than 20 pages)
Do a debriefing on preliminary findings. The result is expected to be shared with SIDA, DFAT, and other stakeholders, and the consultant needs to give due attention to the quality of the report.
Approximately one-hour PowerPoint presentation of results and discussions to be presented in a stakeholder’s validation workshop.
Cleaned survey data (in Excel and STATA compatible formats), transcripts of the FGDs, KIIs, photographs and ethical approval from Somali Bureau of Statistics or designated agency or bodies etc
Infographics and factsheets outlining the Key Findings

7.0 Required Skills, Experience and Competence

SomReP is looking to engage the services of a qualified consultant in undertaking the ARM. We are looking for a consultant who has the following skills and expertise;

In depth knowledge and experience of Somalia (especially the district of interest in this study) and its regions including government and community level service delivery structures.
Masters degree in Social science, Agricultural Economics, Development studies, Public Health, Monitoring and evaluation and international studies, project planning and management and other related fields
Has a minimum of 5 years of technically sound experiences in conducting livelihood projects evaluations or Resilience measurements
Proven expertise in large-scale mixed-methods research and application of OECD-DAC evaluation criteria.
Proven Experience in conducting Quasi-Experimental study design in fragile or similar contexts.
Familiarity with the Technical Assistance to NGOs (TANGO) Resilience measurement framework.
Familiarity with computation of resilience capacity, adaptive capacity, absorptive capacity and transformative capacity indices.
Has at least 5 years of extensive experience in food security, resilience measurement, governance, displacement, WASH, and livelihood programming/resilience programming in fragile contexts
Diverse team comprising personnel with the following skills and expertise: Resilience expert, M&E expert, statistician/data analyst, Gender expert, graphics designer etc.
Demonstrated experience of working in donor-funded projects, EU, BMZ and SDC will be an added advantage
Excellent analytical and communication skills
Experience in writing impact evaluation reports and presenting this to diverse audience
Ability to produce high quality work under tight timelines
Experience working in Somalia

8.0 Roles and Responsibilities of ARM Participants: World Vision Staff / SomReP / Partners

Ensure that the consultants adhere to research ethics and child protection policy
Ensure quality assurance and provide technical oversight throughout the study implementation
Provide the consultants with necessary documents as demanded by the consultant
Review report and provide feedback to the consultants to ensure quality delivery and compliance to the study protocol
Support community entry, mobilization, and contextual insights.
Arrange key informant interviews and focus-group discussions as requested by the consultants.
Review and approve operational approaches to be used by the consultants including the inception report
Review the draft report and provide feedback to the consultants.
Facilitate access and participate in the dissemination of findings.
Approve the final reports contingent on the reports meeting the intended objectives and quality assurances

9.0 Project Timeframe

The assessment is expected to commence in November 2025 for approximately 30-45 days inclusive of data collection period and report review. The consultant is expected to provide a detailed schedule listing the different activities to be conducted and their time period.

More Details to be provided in the full ToR upon Expression of Interest.

We hereby invite Expression of Interest from registered, approved and reputable consultants to provide above-named services to World Vision Somalia.

How to apply

Interested bidders must be registered to provide consultancy services in their respective countries.
Request for Proposal documents will be available Free of Charge to all interested bidders who express interest by filling the form provided in this link https://forms.cloud.microsoft/r/yahCpTZNGS by 5:00 PM Sunday 18th October 2026.
Instructions for submission of completed proposals shall be indicated on the Request for Proposal document.
Nothing in this Expression of Interest shall be construed to give rise to contractual obligations with World Vision.
World Vision, may at its absolute discretion, suspend or defer this EOI process.

“World Vision reserves the right to accept or reject any Bid and is not bound to give reasons for its decision”